The USMNT opens its home World Cup tonight at SoFi Stadium — the first home World Cup match for the US since 1994. Kickoff is 7:00 PM MT on FOX, and the matchup is sharper than the hype suggests.
The Matchup
The US enters under Mauricio Pochettino with the talent edge but questions up top — Christian Pulisic arrives in a 20-match club goal drought. The form striker is Folarin Balogun: 9 goals in his last 12 for Monaco, and he scored the winner when these teams met in November. Paraguay is back in the World Cup after 16 years and brings the part that travels: defense. They conceded just 10 goals in 18 South American qualifiers — against Brazil and Argentina.
The Line
Moneyline: USA +105 / Paraguay +310
Draw: +220
Total (O/U 2.5): Over +140 / Under -175
Our Pick
Best bet: USA moneyline + Under 2.5, parlay +290
Paraguay bunkers and the US grinds — this sets up as a controlled, low-scoring home win, not a party. The honest risk: openers are nervy, and if Paraguay nicks the first goal this gets uncomfortable fast. Bet it as a lean, not a lock.
Alt / Prop
Balogun anytime goal scorer. The form, the matchup history, the likely game script. +235
Where to watch & bet
Best watch party tonight: The DNVR Bar (2239 E Colfax) — dedicated USMNT watch party. Jason’s Deli’s Goal Rush starts today: free food every time the USMNT scores. Lines move fast on game day. Lines move fast on game day. Check the live number at your sportsbook before you bet.
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