Fair ValueⓘFair value = what the odds would be with zero vig (the book’s margin removed). It’s the true probability of the outcome. & EV Calculator
Get behind the lines — strip the vig, find fair value, see your edge.
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Result — fair line, best price & your edgeⓘYour edge is the difference between the fair line and the best available price. Positive (+) means you’re getting value — the book is paying more than the true odds suggest.
Optional — your own read (advanced)
If your handicap says an outcome is more likely than the market, enter your win % and see the edge against your number, plus a suggested unit size (quarter-Kelly).
The algorithm, in plain terms: 1) Convert each price to a decimal and to an implied % (the book’s number, vig included). 2) For each book, add the outcomes’ implied %s — the excess over 100% is the vig — and divide each by that total to strip it. That’s the no-vig probability. 3) Average those across books = the consensus fair probability; convert it back to odds = the fair line. 4) EV = fair probability × best decimal price − 1. Positive = the best price beats the true odds. 5) If you have your own win %, swap it in for the fair probability to size the edge your read gives you.
21+ · Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. This prices a bet; it doesn’t predict the result.
21+ · Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. This prices a bet; it doesn’t predict the result.