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Five games on Friday night and a side on every one of them. Two are real handicaps. Three are FCS visitors walking into ACC stadiums, and the honest word for those is formality.
Same arithmetic as the Saturday card. Take the two SP+ ratings, hand the home team two and a half points, and compare that projection against what the board is posting. Where a visitor has no SP+ rating, the pick is the priced favourite and nothing more is claimed for it. Prices below are live from our partner books; odds move, confirm at the book.
The Friday Card
| Kickoff | Matchup | Line | Our pick | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00 PM ET | Villanova at Louisville | Louisville -37.5 | Louisville -37.5 | Kicked off |
| 7:00 PM ET | Richmond at NC State | NC State -33.5 | NC State -33.5 | Kicked off |
| 7:00 PM ET | Norfolk State at Virginia | Virginia -46.5 | Virginia -46.5 | Kicked off |
| 7:30 PM ET | Rutgers at Boston College | Boston College -3 | Rutgers +3 | Kicked off |
| 8:00 PM ET | Missouri at Kansas | Missouri -4.5 | Missouri -4.5 | Kicked off |
The Two Handicaps
Rutgers at Boston College, 7:30 PM ET. Take Rutgers and the three at . The ratings have these two within a point of each other before home field, which puts the fair number near Boston College by two. The board is asking Rutgers to cover three, so the extra half point and the hook come free. Rutgers ran the ball well enough last week to keep this inside a field goal either way.
Missouri at Kansas, 8:00 PM ET. Take Missouri and lay the four and a half at . Missouri projects the better team by a touchdown on a neutral field, and Kansas gets only the standard two and a half at home. That leaves a gap of about two points in Missouri’s favour against the posted line. A road favourite in a rivalry game is never comfortable. The number still says Missouri.
The Three Formalities
Villanova at Louisville, 7:00 PM ET. Louisville -37.5. Villanova is an FCS programme with no SP+ rating, so there is no projection to compare. Louisville is the priced favourite and that is the pick. Treat it as a formality and size it that way, if you play it at all.
Richmond at NC State, 7:00 PM ET. NC State -33.5. Same shape. Richmond is unrated, NC State is the favourite, and the pick follows the price. Big numbers like this one turn on how long the starters stay in, which no rating can see.
Norfolk State at Virginia, 7:00 PM ET. Virginia -46.5. The largest spread of the night and the least information behind it. Virginia is the pick because Virginia is the favourite. Nothing here is a handicap.
Bottom Line
Two real positions on Friday: Rutgers getting three in Chestnut Hill, and Missouri laying four and a half in Lawrence. The other three are the favourites by default, marked as such so nobody mistakes a formality for an edge. The full Saturday card, all 78 games, is on the College Football Week 2 picks page.
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