The write-up

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I went 4-2 on featured picks in College Week 4, and 2-1 on the three staked plays. The full board of 70 games went 40-28-2. Here is all of it, starting with what went wrong.

Texas A&M never showed up Texas A&M plus nine and a half lost 35-6. The Aggies didn't score a touchdown. LSU sacked Marcel Reed four times and held him to 10 of 26 for 106 yards, and Sam Leavitt threw for 312, including a 57-yard score on a fourth-down trick play.

My case was that the market overreacted to one bad loss at Kentucky. The market was right, and it was right twice. The line moved another point toward LSU on Thursday night, and that's why I downgraded it to a lean on Friday. I'm glad I did. A team that got outgained 196 to 20 in a quarter against Kentucky wasn't a one-week blip. It was a team with a problem, and I read it as noise.

USC lost a game it should have been in USC plus three was a light play, and it lost 41-27. Here's the part that stings. Oregon lost Dante Moore to an injury in the second quarter, and backup Dylan Raiola threw for 289 yards and two scores anyway. USC came back from ten down to tie it early in the fourth, then gave up the go-ahead touchdown, and Jayden Maiava threw a late interception.

The line moved a point and a half toward Oregon during the week, and I said so in the article. Last week the plays where the line moved against us lost. This week it happened again. I kept it small, which is the only good thing I can say about it.

Two Friday misses and one I have to explain Navy minus six and a half lost outright, 24-20 at UAB. That was a pick over our warning line with the line already sliding toward UAB, and the market was right again.

Then there's Northwestern at Indiana, and I owe you a straight answer. Our overview had Northwestern plus 21. The Friday article had Indiana minus twenty and a half after the line moved and the numbers tipped the other way. Indiana won by six. So the overview pick won and the Friday pick lost. I should have updated both articles when the line moved, and I didn't. The receipts page shows one of each.

What went right Tennessee plus four and a half covered in a 20-17 loss to No. 1 Texas. The Vols scored with 1:22 left and their last Hail Mary fell incomplete. The line had moved our way all week, and that held up.

Clemson minus one and a half won 24-10 on Friday night. It was tied late in the third until a punt return touchdown, and the Clemson defense held Cal to three offensive points. That's the defense the article was built on.

The two leans with no stake on them both came in. Iowa plus five and a half won outright, 20-19, on a touchdown with two seconds left after a 91-yard drive. Florida minus three and a half won by 24 over the No. 4 team in the country, running for 302 yards.

Upsets Florida over Ole Miss was the big one. Iowa beat Michigan in Ann Arbor, Wisconsin beat No. 13 Penn State, and Wake Forest won at Louisville. Minnesota won at Washington, Cincinnati beat Kansas State, and Stanford beat Georgia Tech.

The parlays The Tennessee and Clemson ticket cashed, both legs. The USC and Texas A&M ticket lost both legs.

The number I'm watching Last week our six biggest disagreements with the board went 0-6. This week the games over our four-point warning line went 9-7 on the overview. That's better, but it's one week, and the two featured warnings split: Iowa won and A&M lost. Two weeks running, the line moving against us has been a better tell than the size of our gap. I'm treating that as a rule now, not a hunch.

Bottom Line College Week 4: 4-2 on featured picks, 2-1 on staked plays. The tracked picks went 40-28-2 across Friday and Saturday, with no stake on them. On the season, the staked record is 21-22-2. I track every pick here, win or lose. It's analysis and entertainment, not financial advice. Every graded play is on the receipts page, and the full card is in the Week 4 overview.