The write-up

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We went 4-7-1 on featured picks in Week 1. Here is what happened.

Michigan needed two Hail Marys to beat Western Michigan The Broncos led 12-7 with thirty-five seconds left in the Big House. Michigan was a 27.5-point favourite. Time expired, a second went back up on the board, and Bryce Underwood threw two Hail Marys. The second one found JJ Buchanan for 47 yards. Michigan 13, Western Michigan 12.

We did not have a bet on that game. We do have Michigan under 8.5 wins this season. If Michigan needs a miracle to get past a MAC team at home in September, what happens when Ohio State comes to town? That is the entire case for the Under, and it turned up in week one.

What we got right Baylor plus seven and a half was the best call of the weekend. Auburn won 17-16 and the number was never in danger. Duke minus seven and a half is the one I flipped on Saturday morning when the numbers came back against the draft, and Duke won by fourteen. San Jose State plus two and a half won outright at Eastern Michigan and the Under came with it. On Thursday, Colorado won at Georgia Tech and the Under cashed at 27 points.

What we got wrong Clemson at LSU was our biggest play and it went nothing for three. LSU won 51-10. The Under, the points and the outright were all dead by halftime. I built that case on two top-twenty defences and they gave up sixty-one points between them.

Notre Dame and Wisconsin was the same mistake twice. I argued the injury report over the numbers, took the Under and the twenty and a half, and Notre Dame won 41-13 with the total sailing over. Eight players out did not matter. That was a bad read, not bad luck.

Ole Miss minus six and a half lost by a hook. They won 41-38, so the side missed by three and a half while the Over and the moneyline both cashed on the same game. California plus two and a half was buried, UCLA by twenty-one. Fresno State plus twenty-one and a half never had a pulse in a 39-0 shutout. Toledo plus ten is a push, Michigan State by exactly ten.

Elsewhere SMU beat Florida State 27-24 on Labor Day night. Louisville and Ole Miss put seventy-nine points on the board in the Music City Kickoff, the highest-scoring game of the weekend and the reason our Over cashed while our side did not. Washington handled Washington State 24-10 in the Apple Cup.

Bottom Line Week 1: 4-7-1 on featured picks, 9-19-1 overall. Down 2.77 units, which is about sixty-nine dollars at twenty-five a play. That is a bad week and there is no way to write it that reads well. Two of the three biggest plays went nothing for three, and both were games where I talked myself past my own numbers. Full breakdown on every game at slatelines dot com.