NFL · WEEK 8 · SUN NOV 1 · 1PM ET

Colts vs Jaguars Picks, Odds & Best Bets: November 1, 2026

By SlateLines · Oct 31, 2026

October 31, 2026

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Colts

1PM ET

Jaguars

Week 8

Wind 16 mph E, 54% chance of rain · NWS hourly · checked Fri 1:45 PM ET

GAME PICK · LEAN

Jaguars −10−108

Pick locks at 10AM ET

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WIND UNDER · LEAN

Under 46.5 −108 BetMGM

The forecast calls for 16 mph sustained wind at kickoff in Jacksonville with rain likely, and that clears our 15 mph wind trigger.

Under 46.5−108

Wind 16 mph E, 54% chance of rain · NWS hourly · checked Fri 1:45 PM ET

This is the one game on Sunday’s board where the weather gets a vote. The forecast in Jacksonville has 16 mph of sustained wind off the ocean at kickoff and a better than even chance of rain. That’s our wind trigger, so the Under is the Featured pick here. On the side, Jacksonville is rested and Indianapolis has lost three straight. Give me the Under and the Jaguars.

The Matchup

The wind. The National Weather Service hourly forecast for EverBank Stadium has wind at 16 mph from the east at 1 PM, holding at 15 to 16 mph through the afternoon, with a 54% chance of rain and 75 degrees. We recheck it Saturday night.
Indianapolis is sliding. The Colts are 2-5 and have lost three straight: 34-22 at Pittsburgh, 26-20 to Tennessee and 16-10 at Minnesota. Daniel Jones went 13 of 22 for 108 yards last week.
The Colts give the ball away. Indianapolis is minus 9 in turnovers with just 3 takeaways all season. Jacksonville is plus 5.
Jacksonville is rested. The Jaguars are 4-2 and coming off their bye. They’ve allowed 104 points in six games, 17.3 a game.
Injuries. Indianapolis has receiver Alec Pierce (heel) and corner Cam Taylor-Britt (groin) on injured reserve. Jacksonville lost right tackle Anton Harrison to a torn ACL, and receiver Jakobi Meyers (hamstring) is questionable.
Kickoff. 1:00 PM ET Sunday at EverBank Stadium, on CBS.

The Number

Jacksonville is plus 50 in point differential through six games, 8.3 a game. Indianapolis is minus 26 through seven, minus 3.7 a game. Add a point and a half for home field and we get the Jaguars by about thirteen and a half. The line is ten. The market makes Jacksonville about an 80% favorite to win outright.

The total is the Featured pick, and it’s a weather call, not a ratings call. These two teams average a combined 47.7 points, right around the 46.5 posted. Sustained wind in the mid teens makes deep throws and long kicks harder, and rain makes the ball harder to hold. That’s the whole case.

The honest case against: forecasts move, and 16 mph is barely past our trigger. If the wind drops under 15 by Sunday morning, the reason for this pick is gone, and we’ll say so. On the side, ten points is a lot to lay with a team coming off a 34-31 loss. Both are leans, and like every pick we post, they land on the receipts page win or lose.

In-Game Bets

If the rain is coming down at kickoff. That backs up the Under. Don’t add to it, just like the position more.
If there’s an early defensive or special teams score. Leave the Under alone. One fluky touchdown isn’t a reason to bail.
If Jacksonville leads by 17 at halftime. Don’t chase the Jaguars live. Wind and rain make it easy to run the clock and back into a cover miss.

Bottom Line

Take the Under 46.5 and the Jaguars minus ten at -108 at BetMGM. Featured Under, Lean on the side. The wind is the reason for the total, and a rested Jaguars team against a Colts team that keeps turning it over is the reason for the side.

Same-Game Parlay

Two legs, one read. If the wind and rain keep the ball on the ground, the total stays low and Trevor Lawrence’s passing number stays low with it. Both legs need the same weather, so this is one position, not two bets.

Lines as of Friday afternoon; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.

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