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Pick locks at 5:20PM ET
Two good teams on Monday night, and our numbers have them closer than the line. Chicago is 5-2 and has won both games since Caleb Williams came back. Seattle is missing its left tackle. It’s a small edge, but a field goal is a field goal. Give me the Bears and the points.
The Matchup
- Williams is back and rolling. He missed Weeks 3 through 5. Since returning he’s gone 30 of 36 for 305 yards at Atlanta and 22 of 33 for 308 against New England, and the Bears won both.
- Chicago can run. The Bears average 154.3 rushing yards a game and score 25.7 points a game. The defense has 19 sacks.
- Seattle’s line is hurting. Left tackle Charles Cross has a high ankle sprain and is doubtful. Receiver Rashid Shaheed (knee) didn’t practice Thursday, and defensive tackle Leonard Williams (Achilles) is limited and questionable.
- Seattle’s defense is real. The Seahawks are 4-3, have allowed 125 points in seven games and held Kansas City to 3 points last week. They have 12 takeaways.
- Chicago’s injuries. Tight end Cole Kmet went on injured reserve Friday. Safety Anthony Johnson Jr. is out, and running back Kyle Monangai (thumb, toe) is questionable.
- Weather and kickoff. Mostly cloudy, 52 degrees, wind 2 mph (NWS hourly, checked Friday). 8:15 PM ET Monday at Lumen Field, on ESPN.
The Number
Chicago is plus 37 in point differential through seven games, 5.3 a game. Seattle is plus 43 through seven, 6.1 a game. Add a point and a half for home field and we get Seattle by about two and a half. The line is three. The market makes Seattle about a 60% favorite to win outright.
The honest case against: this is a thin edge, half a point. Chicago’s numbers include three games without Williams, and Seattle’s defense just shut down Patrick Mahomes. If the Seahawks get pressure without needing to blitz, a field goal won’t be enough. It’s a Game Pick, a lean, and like every pick we post, it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
In-Game Bets
- If Cross is active and plays. That takes away part of the read. Leave the bet, don’t add.
- If Seattle scores first. Don’t bail. One score doesn’t change the read.
- If Chicago leads by a touchdown late. Don’t chase anything live. The pick is already where it needs to be.
Bottom Line
Take the Bears plus three at -102 at FanDuel. Lean. Williams is healthy, Seattle’s left tackle isn’t, and a field goal is a lot in a game this close. Bear down.
Same-Game Parlay
Two legs, one read. If Chicago covers, it’s most likely because the Bears’ pass rush gets to Sam Darnold behind a backup left tackle. That also keeps his passing yards down. Both legs need the same game, so this is one position, not two bets.
Lines as of Friday afternoon; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
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