The write-up

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I went 1-4 on featured picks in College Week 5, and 0-3 on the three staked plays. The full board of 55 games went 28-26-1, so the tracked picks held up while the staked plays didn't. Here is all of it, starting with the worst of it.

Virginia was the best spot on the card, and it lost by 31 Virginia minus two and a half was the half play, the one I called the best spot on the card, and Florida State won 38-7. Virginia scored first, then gave up 38 straight. The Seminoles sacked Beau Pribula ten times, Virginia ran 40 times for 37 yards after averaging almost 193 a game, and Ashton Daniels ran for five touchdowns, a school record for a Florida State quarterback.

My case was Virginia's pass defense against Florida State's passing game. Florida State didn't need to throw. Daniels did it with his legs, and the Virginia line couldn't block anybody. The line had drifted our way all week, and that didn't matter. I got the matchup wrong, not the market.

Penn State got run over on Friday Penn State minus two and a half was a lean with no stake, and Northwestern won 34-13 in the first game at the new Ryan Field. Northwestern ran for 413 yards. Penn State ran for 48. Caleb Komolafe had 188 yards, and Joseph Himon II had 162 on ten carries.

This is the one where I should have listened. The line moved against us all week, and I wrote that the market had priced in the four defensive ends Penn State was missing. A defense without its edge rushers gave up 413 on the ground. That's the market being right again, and it's why it was a lean.

Iowa's defense finally met an offense Iowa plus fourteen and a half was a light play, and Ohio State won 31-14. Julian Sayin threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns, two of them to Jeremiah Smith, the receiver I named as the risk. Ohio State outgained Iowa 484 to 238 and held the ball almost 17 minutes longer, and Iowa's only touchdown came after the game was decided.

The best scoring defense in the country gave up 31, but that wasn't really the problem. Iowa's offense had 238 yards and two turnovers. You can't stay within two touchdowns of Ohio State with 132 passing yards.

Arkansas was done by the third play Arkansas plus fourteen was a light play, and Texas A&M won 34-7. Dalton Brooks intercepted KJ Jackson on the third play of the game, and A&M scored right after. It was 24-7 at the half, and Arkansas never scored again. A&M ran for 231 yards, the same offense that scored six points the week before.

I said this one only worked if A&M's offense stayed stuck. It didn't. Arkansas has now lost 13 straight SEC games, and I'm not picking them to snap it until they show me something.

What went right Missouri plus five and a half was a lean with no stake, and it won by 28, 45-17 over No. 8 Florida. Missouri was down 3-0 after a quarter, then scored 35 straight. Jamal Roberts ran for 211 yards and three touchdowns, with runs of 76 and 80, and Austin Simmons threw for 340. Here's the part I'll remember: both Missouri starting defensive ends were out, the reason I kept it a lean, and Florida still ran for only 42 yards.

Outside the five write-ups, the board went 27-22-1. Wake Forest minus twelve and a half won by 54, Kansas won 55-0, and Memphis won 59-8. Kentucky plus three won outright in overtime at South Carolina, and Baylor plus four and a half won by 36 at Arizona State.

Upsets Missouri over Florida was the only loss by a top-10 team. Minnesota beat Michigan for the first time since 2014, and Northwestern over Penn State was the big one on Friday. Purdue won at Illinois as a ten-point underdog, NC State beat Louisville, Kentucky won at South Carolina, Temple won at South Florida, and Bowling Green won at Miami (OH) as a thirteen-and-a-half-point underdog. Fresno State, Baylor, San Jose State, Louisiana Tech and San Diego State all won as underdogs too.

The parlays The staked-plays ticket of Virginia, Iowa and Arkansas lost all three legs. The leans ticket lost on Penn State before Missouri ever kicked off. Both same-game parlays split and lost. On the Iowa ticket the under hit at 45 points, but Iowa didn't cover. On the Missouri ticket Missouri covered, but the game went over at 62.

The number I'm watching Last week I said the line moving against us was a better tell than the size of our gap, and I was treating it as a rule. This week it was half right. Penn State, where the line moved against us all week, lost by 21. But Virginia and Arkansas, the two where the line came our way, lost by 31 and 27. The market moving our way isn't enough on its own. Both of those were matchups I misread. I backed Virginia's pass defense and Florida State ran for five scores, and I backed A&M's offense staying broken and it ran for 231. Next week I'm checking the run game on both sides before I stake a play.

Bottom Line College Week 5: 1-4 on featured picks, 0-3 on staked plays. The tracked picks went 28-26-1 across Friday and Saturday, with no stake on them. Through Saturday's games, the staked record is 22-25-2. I track every pick here, win or lose, so you can see exactly how the reads hold up. It's analysis and entertainment, not financial advice. Every graded play is on the receipts page, and the full card is in the Week 5 overview.