NFL Week 4 Picks: Every Game, Every Bet, October 4, 2026

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Fifteen games between Sunday morning in London and Monday night, a side on every one of them, and four full write-ups. Every pick on this Sunday and Monday board is a lean: I like each side, but none of them has the kind of edge I’d stake. The method is our season projections, using the adjusted number wherever a preview gives two, one point of spread for every projected win, and three points for the home team. Colts and Commanders play in London, so that game gets no home field. No totals.

Thursday Night

Steelers at Browns: we took Cleveland plus two and a half as a half play, the only staked NFL play of the week. It’s graded on the receipts page.

The Whole Board

Featured Picks

Lions at Panthers (Sunday night)

Our number says Detroit by a quarter of a point against three and a half, which would put us on Carolina. But the Panthers put both starting corners on injured reserve Wednesday, with both starting tackles already out, and a same-week starter loss inside ten points is exactly when we override. Take Detroit −3.5 at Kicked off. Lean. Full breakdown →

Falcons at Saints (Monday night)

Our number says New Orleans by 2.9 against two and a half. Michael Penix Jr. is back for Atlanta and the line has moved half a point toward the Falcons, so the edge is thin. Take the Saints −2.5 at Kicked off. Lean. Full breakdown →

Packers at Buccaneers

Our number says Tampa by about a point, but it was built with Baker Mayfield, and he’s out with a dislocated thumb. An undrafted rookie makes his first start, and the line has moved five points. Take Green Bay −3.5 at Kicked off. Lean. Full breakdown →

Colts vs Commanders (London)

Our number says Indianapolis by three and a half on a neutral field, exactly the line. When it’s that even I take the points, and Washington gets the only upside if Jayden Daniels plays. Take Washington +3.5 at Kicked off. Lean. Full breakdown →

Every Other Game

One sentence each. 3 of these carry a gap over our four-point warning line, which usually means our August number is missing something, so read those as flags.

• Arizona at New York Giants: our number says New York Giants by 4.7 and the board says Arizona by 2. Take New York Giants +2. That’s 6.7 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so it’s a lean with a flag on it.
• Tennessee at Baltimore: our number says Baltimore by 8.3 and the board says Baltimore by 11.5. Take Tennessee +11.5. A 3.2-point gap, still a lean on this board.
• New England at Buffalo: our number says Buffalo by 3.2 and the board says Buffalo by 6.5. Take New England +6.5. A 3.3-point gap, still a lean on this board.
• New York Jets at Chicago: our number says Chicago by 5.1 and the board says Chicago by 3.5. Take New York Jets +3.5. Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring and Case Keenum starts, so our rules let us override a number built on Williams. A lean.
• Jacksonville at Cincinnati: our number says Jacksonville by 2 and the board says Cincinnati by 2.5. Take Jacksonville +2.5. That’s 4.5 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so it’s a lean with a flag on it.
• Dallas at Houston: our number says Houston by 3.8 and the board says Houston by 2.5. Take Houston −2.5. Under two points, a lean.
• Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia: our number says Philadelphia by 0.7 and the board says Los Angeles Rams by 3. Take Philadelphia +3. A 3.7-point gap, still a lean on this board.
• Miami at Minnesota: our number says Minnesota by 6 and the board says Minnesota by 10.5. Take Miami +10.5. That’s 4.5 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so it’s a lean with a flag on it.
• Denver at San Francisco: our number says San Francisco by 2.1 and the board says San Francisco by 2.5. Take Denver +2.5. Under two points, a lean.
• Kansas City at Las Vegas: our number says Kansas City by 1.1 and the board says Kansas City by 4.5. Take Las Vegas +4.5. A 3.4-point gap, still a lean on this board.
• Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle: our number says Seattle by 6.7 and the board says Seattle by 7. Take Los Angeles Chargers +7. Under two points, a lean.

Bottom Line

Fifteen picks on Sunday and Monday, fifteen leans. The only staked NFL play this week was Thursday’s Browns half play. Two of our four featured picks this weekend go against our own season numbers because a starter went down the same week, and the market moved on both before we could get there. Every row here is a pick and every one gets graded on the receipts page. If I had to take one, it’s Green Bay against a rookie’s first start.

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Picks are opinion and analysis, not financial advice. Odds move; confirm at the book.