Twelve NBA games on Wednesday, and a Game Pick on every one. Two get the full treatment, both on ESPN: Philadelphia at Indiana, and Oklahoma City at Dallas.
How we pick NBA games right now: last season’s scoring margins, at half weight this early, plus home court, compared with the board. A lot of rosters changed this summer, so these are leans, and when a team looks very different from last season, we go with the board. Four teams are on the second night of a back-to-back: the Knicks, Pistons, Spurs and Lakers. Every pick lands on the receipts page win or lose.
Heat at Hawks, 7:00 PM ET
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Miami is 0-4, but the last two losses came by five and four. Atlanta has lost two straight to Houston. Last season’s numbers make this close to a pick’em, and the board has the Hawks by two and a half. Heat with the points.
Wizards at Cavaliers, 7:00 PM ET
Washington is 2-2 and won in Chicago on Saturday. Cleveland is 2-1 after beating Minnesota 127-125 on Monday. Our number is Cavs by nine, and the board says nine and a half. That half point is about all there is, so it’s a soft lean. Wizards.
Hornets at Pistons, 7:00 PM ET
Detroit lost 111-97 in New York last night, so this is the second half of a back-to-back, and Jalen Duren is still out. Charlotte is 3-1 but without Kon Knueppel and Coby White. Last season’s numbers make Detroit about a three-point favorite, and the board says seven and a half. Hornets.
76ers at Pacers, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN
Philadelphia is 3-1, and Tyrese Haliburton is back for Indiana. Full write-up: 76ers vs Pacers picks.
Magic at Raptors, 7:30 PM ET
Both teams are without their best player: Paolo Banchero for Orlando and Kawhi Leonard for Toronto. Orlando is also missing Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Isaac. With rosters this far from last season’s, we go with the board, and the board likes Toronto at home. Raptors.
Knicks at Bulls, 8:00 PM ET
New York beat Detroit last night for its first win and plays the second half of a back-to-back in Chicago. Our number has the Knicks by about three and a half, and the board says seven and a half. Chicago has been blown out twice, so it’s a lean. Bulls.
Rockets at Bucks, 8:00 PM ET
Houston is 4-0 but without Alperen Sengun (back) and Steven Adams. Milwaukee is 1-3, and our number has the Rockets by three and a half. Eight and a half is a lot to lay on the road without your starting center. Bucks.
Warriors at Timberwolves, 8:00 PM ET
Minnesota is 3-1 but is without Anthony Edwards, who’s having knee surgery and could miss up to two months. Golden State is missing Jimmy Butler and Kristaps Porzingis, but won 134-114 in Denver on Monday. Our number is right at the line, and the Edwards news tips it. Warriors.
Nuggets at Pelicans, 8:00 PM ET
New Orleans is 0-3, but the losses came by three, one and six. Denver is 1-2, and Cameron Johnson is doubtful. Our number has the Nuggets by about three. Pelicans with the points.
Spurs at Jazz, 9:00 PM ET
San Antonio beat Sacramento by 27 last night and plays the second half of a back-to-back in Salt Lake City. Utah is without Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic, and Lauri Markkanen is questionable. Our number has the Spurs by six. Thirteen is a big gap, even after the injuries. Jazz.
Thunder at Mavericks, 9:30 PM ET, ESPN
Oklahoma City is 4-0 but without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace. Full write-up: Thunder vs Mavericks picks.
Lakers at Clippers, 10:30 PM ET
The Lakers lost 136-129 to Portland last night, their first loss, and this is the second half of a back-to-back. But the Clippers are missing Brandon Ingram, Bradley Beal, Max Strus and Rui Hachimura. Last season’s numbers like the Clippers, but this isn’t last season’s roster, so we go with the board. Lakers.
Lines as posted Wednesday, after the morning injury report.
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Picks are opinion and analysis, not financial advice. Odds move; confirm at the book.