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Thunder
Mavericks
Mavericks +6.5−114
Pick locks at 6:40PM ET
Oklahoma City is 4-0, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is doing what he does. But the Thunder are in Dallas without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace. I’ll take the Mavericks and the points at home.
The Matchup
- OKC hasn’t lost. The Thunder won 116-104 in San Antonio, then beat Denver 96-84, the Clippers 108-101 and Phoenix 125-114 at home. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 27.3 points.
- Dallas is 2-2. The Mavs lost in Houston, won 121-105 in Indiana, lost 122-106 to San Antonio at home and won 113-109 in Miami on Monday. Cooper Flagg had 29 points and 11 assists in that one.
- Last season. Oklahoma City went 64-18 and outscored teams by 11.1 a game. Dallas went 26-56, minus 5.5.
- Tip-off. 9:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center, on ESPN.
Injuries
Oklahoma City has ruled out Holmgren (knee) and Caruso (ankle). Jalen Williams has a fractured fibula, and Wallace has a torn labrum. Ajay Mitchell (ankle) is questionable after scoring 30 on Monday. For Dallas, Kyrie Irving (knee) and Naji Marshall (illness) are questionable, and Dereck Lively II and Santi Aldama are out.
The Number
Last season’s scoring margins, at half weight this early, plus home court make Oklahoma City about a six-point favorite. The board says six and a half. That’s close, and our number comes from a full-strength Thunder team. The board knows about the injuries and still says six and a half, so we’re not claiming a big edge. It’s a lean on the points.
The honest case against: OKC is 4-0, and Gilgeous-Alexander can win a game by himself. It’s a Game Pick, a lean, and like every pick we post, it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
Bottom Line
Take the Mavericks plus six and a half at -114 at FanDuel. Lean. A short-handed road favorite against Flagg at home. Let’s go Mavs.
Lines as posted Wednesday, after the morning injury report. Confirm them before tip.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in two legs. Flagg is running the Dallas offense now, and that leaves Irving finishing plays rather than setting them up. If Flagg has the ball and Dallas stays close, both legs land. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not two bets.
- 1Dallas Mavericks +6.5−114
- 2Kyrie Irving under 3.5 assists+112
Flagg runs the offense and Dallas stays close.
FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Confirm lines before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Prop for This Game
One bet beyond the spread, with a trend, a matchup and a real price behind it. It’s a Game Pick prop, a separate bet from our pick, so keep it small. If Irving sits, it’s void.
Kyrie IrvingUnder 3.5 assistsFlagg has the ball, and Irving has a sore knee.
Flagg had 11 assists on Monday, and Irving is questionable with a knee
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Player props not available in all states.
