The write-up

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I went 2-4 on featured picks this weekend, 2-1 in the NFL and 0-3 in college. Counting the four no-stake leans in the articles, every priced play went 3-7. Here is all of it.

College went 0-3, and I earned every loss Texas A&M minus sixteen and a half was the play I liked most, and Kentucky won the game outright, 31-21. Kentucky scored 21 straight in the third quarter and outgained the Aggies 196 to 20 in it. My case leaned on Kentucky's second half against Alabama, when it gained 62 yards and never scored again. One week later, the second half was the whole game. I built a pick on one bad half, and it flipped on me. Missed by twenty-six and a half.

LSU minus three at Ole Miss was my strongest college play. Ole Miss led 24-7, LSU came all the way back to tie it at 24, and then Trinidad Chambliss ran in a 14-yard keeper and Ole Miss added the two-point try with 6:14 left. LSU's last drive died on a tipped interception at the Ole Miss 6. Lost by eight. I wrote that the market wasn't doing our work for us, and I bet it anyway. The article listed LSU minus three and the overview listed minus two and a half. My mistake. Graded at three, lost either way.

Texas Tech minus seven and a half on Friday won 28-26. Houston scored with 49 seconds left and got stopped on the two-point try when the quarterback's knee came down short. Missed by five and a half. That article said the line dropped six points and the market is usually right when it moves that hard. It was. I wrote the warning and laid the points anyway.

The NFL was better, and luckier than 2-1 looks Jets plus three and a half cashed by half a point. New York led 17-7 and lost 20-17 on an overtime field goal. I'll take it, but that was luck, not a read.

Colts plus six cashed too. Indianapolis lost 33-30 on an overtime field goal, so we covered by three. Jonathan Taylor ran for 92 yards and two scores.

Lions plus four and a half on Thursday lost 41-31. Buffalo led 21-0 at the half, Josh Allen had five touchdowns, and Detroit's comeback ended when James Cook scored with 2:50 left. The article said the line moved a point and a half against us for real reasons. Same story as Texas Tech.

Both NFL winners had the line moving our way before kickoff. The Lions and Texas Tech had it moving against us. Texas A&M moved our way and still lost, so it isn't magic, but two weeks running the line has told me more than my numbers did.

The parlays Four same-game parlays ran with the NFL articles. The Colts one hit on all three legs: Indianapolis plus six, Taylor over 60 yards, Taylor to score. The Jets one died on Breece Hall, who ran for 29 yards on 16 carries. The Falcons one died with Bijan Robinson at 72 yards and no score. The Giants lost Jaxson Dart seven snaps in, and Malik Nabers had one catch for one yard.

The college parlay of LSU, Texas A&M and SMU lost all three legs. Not close.

Upsets Carolina won by 31 in Atlanta a week after giving up 59. The Saints won in Baltimore as eight-and-a-half-point dogs, and the Browns won in Tampa. We had both on the overview.

The number I have to own The college overview called UCF minus seventeen and a half the best pick on the card and called it a full play. UCF won by fourteen. It isn't staked in the log, because overview picks don't carry money here, and calling it a full play was my mistake in the write-up.

The bigger problem is the pattern behind it. The three widest gaps on the college board were UCF, Nevada and Buffalo, and all three lost. The three widest in the NFL were Miami plus thirteen and a half, Atlanta and Houston, and all three lost. That puts the six biggest disagreements at 0-6. When my number is far away from the board, the board has been the one that's right.

The tracked picks, not staked, went 40-31-1 in college and 9-6 in the NFL.

Bottom Line This week: 2-4 on featured picks, 3-7 on every priced play in the articles. On the season I'm 19-21-2 on featured picks. Every graded play goes on the receipts page whether it helps me or not.