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I’m taking Clemson and laying the point and a half in Berkeley. The best group on the field is the Clemson defense, and the numbers make this closer to four than one.
The Matchup
- Clemson wins with defense. Our Clemson preview had the defense 18th in the country before the season and the offense 46th, with only 46 percent of its offensive production back. Three weeks in, that’s still the shape of this team.
- Tait Reynolds is the quarterback now. The true freshman came in when Christopher Vizzina hurt the elbow on his non-throwing arm against Georgia Southern, then won his first start 28-20 over North Carolina. Vizzina is listed probable, but Reynolds starts Friday.
- Cal is hard to read. The Bears are 2-1, and last week’s 49-7 win came against Wagner, which tells you almost nothing. Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is healthy. Running back Carter Vargas and defensive lineman Nate Burrell are doubtful.
- The trip is real. It’s a 10:30 PM ET kickoff after a cross-country flight, and reports have Clemson ruling out more than ten players already.
The Number
The current ratings, updated after Week 3, have Clemson at 7.1 and Cal at 0.8. Give Cal two and a half points for playing at home and that’s Clemson by 3.8. The board asks a point and a half. That’s 2.3 points on Clemson, over our two-point line, but not by much. And the whole gap lives on one side of the ball. The ratings have Clemson’s offense and Cal’s defense about even. Clemson’s defense against Cal’s offense is where the eight points of difference sit.
This line opened at Clemson minus one and a half on Sunday and hasn’t moved an inch, even with Reynolds confirmed as the starter and the Clemson injury list growing. Last week, the plays where the line moved against me lost. This one hasn’t moved either way. That’s no help, but it’s no warning either.
Reynolds’ one start is already baked into the ratings, and he won it. But one start is one start, and he’s making his second on the road at 7:30 local time after a long flight. That’s why this is a half play and not a full one.
In-Game Bets
- If Cal scores first and it’s still a one-score game. Look at the Clemson moneyline. The defense is the reason we’re here, and an early deficit is where the price gets better.
- If Reynolds turns it over twice in the first half. Leave it. The case assumes the freshman keeps the ball clean and lets the defense win the game.
- If Clemson leads by ten at halftime. Do nothing. You already have Clemson at a point and a half. Don’t lay a bigger number live.
Bottom Line
Clemson minus one and a half at is a half play, twelve fifty at our twenty-five dollar standard. The numbers make it Clemson by almost four, the line hasn’t moved against us, and the defense is the best group in the game. A freshman quarterback on the road late at night is the risk, so keep it small.
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