The write-up

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I went 1-4 on NFL featured picks in Week 4, and the only one with a stake on it won. Thursday's Browns half play cashed, and all four leans lost, Monday night included. The full board went 7-8-1. Here's all of it, starting with the closest miss.

Green Bay won by three, and we needed three and a half Packers minus three and a half lost by half a point, 17-14. The part I got right was the rookie. Jalon Daniels made his first start for Tampa Bay and threw two interceptions that turned into ten Green Bay points. The part that cost us was Green Bay handing two back in the fourth quarter: a Kaleb Johnson fumble inside the five and a Jordan Love interception. Daniels found Kenneth Gainwell for the touchdown that made it 17-14, and that's where it ended.

This was the one I said I'd take if I had to pick one. The read held up. The finish didn't, and a lean is the right size for a game that comes down to a goal-line fumble.

Washington lost two quarterbacks in London Commanders plus three and a half lost 30-13. Jayden Daniels didn't play, Marcus Mariota started and left with a knee injury after four passes, and rookie Athan Kaliakmanis finished it, 15 of 33. It was 10-6 at halftime. Then the Colts' defense forced three punts and a turnover on downs on Kaliakmanis' first four drives, Jonathan Taylor scored twice, and Washington took ten penalties to Indianapolis's one, including a flag that wiped out an 87-yard touchdown.

Our case was built on a quarterback who wasn't decided until Friday. When the starter went out after four throws, there wasn't much left of it.

Carolina's offense was better than I thought Lions minus three and a half lost outright, 32-26, on Sunday night. I thought Carolina's run defense was the edge. It was the other side of the ball that decided it. Bryce Young completed his first 11 passes and threw for 329, Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 for 192 yards and two scores, and Chuba Hubbard ran for 122 and two more. Jared Goff threw for 412, but Detroit kicked too many field goals and couldn't get a first down on its last drive.

What went right Thursday's Browns plus two and a half won outright, 27-24, on a 56-yard field goal with under ten seconds left. Cleveland scored 21 straight in the second quarter, Aaron Rodgers led the Steelers back to tie it, and Deshaun Watson drove them into range for the kick. That was the half play, and it's the only staked NFL pick of the week.

Outside the featured games, the Sunday board went 6-4-1. The Giants plus two won by twelve, the Patriots plus six and a half won outright in Buffalo, and the Jaguars plus two and a half won at Cincinnati. The Chargers pushed at plus seven.

Monday night Saints minus two and a half lost 45-24 on Monday night, and it was never close. Bijan Robinson ran 59 yards for a touchdown on the third play of the game, Atlanta led 24-7 at the half, and a Kendre Miller fumble at the Saints' 22 set up another score. The Falcons ran for 205 yards to the Saints' 50, Brian Robinson Jr. added three short touchdowns, and Michael Penix Jr. went 15 of 20 in his first game back.

I wrote that the Saints would have to throw because Atlanta stops the run better than anyone. The Saints did throw, for 286 yards. The problem was the other side of the ball, where the Falcons ran right through them. The props held up anyway: Chris Olave caught eight for 116, Juwan Johnson caught six for 59, and Brian Robinson Jr. ran for 62, all over their numbers. Johnson didn't score, so the touchdown prop missed, and the parlay needed a Saints cover.

The props This was the first week every NFL game-day article carried a Best Props section, and they went 9-8. The split is the interesting part. The yardage, passing and interception props went 9-3: Denzel Boston had 89 receiving yards, Watson threw for 268, Jordan Love threw his two touchdowns, MarShawn Lloyd ran for 13, Daniel Jones threw his weekly interception, Bryce Young threw for 329, and on Monday Olave, Juwan Johnson and Brian Robinson Jr. all cleared. The anytime touchdown props went 0-5. Boston, Christian Watson, Tyler Warren, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Juwan Johnson all had catches and none of them scored.

The misses on yardage were Matthew Golden, who caught three for 21 and scored instead, Stefon Diggs at 35 with a third-string quarterback throwing to him, and Jahmyr Gibbs at 46 on the ground.

The parlays The same-game parlays went 1-4. The Browns ticket cashed, all three legs: Cleveland covered, Boston had 89 receiving yards and Jaylen Warren had 33. The Packers ticket lost on the spread by half a point, and the Commanders, Lions and Saints tickets lost on the spread too. On Monday both Saints receiving legs cleared and the side lost by 21. Every parlay was a lean with no stake on it.

Upsets The Patriots won 29-26 in Buffalo as seven-point underdogs. Carolina beat Detroit, Dallas won 34-30 at Houston on a late touchdown from Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb, the Giants beat Arizona 36-24 with a 98-yard interception return, and Jacksonville won at Cincinnati. Thursday's Browns win over Pittsburgh counts too.

The number I'm watching Five anytime touchdowns, zero scores. Each of those players had scored in at least two of his last three games, which is the standard we use, and it still went 0-5 while everything else went 9-3. A touchdown is one play, and a yardage line is a whole game. I'm keeping the touchdown props, but next week each one needs a red-zone reason, not just a trend.

Bottom Line NFL Week 4: 1-4 on featured picks, 7-8-1 on the full board, 1-0 on staked plays. The Browns half play was the only staked pick, and the leans carry no stake. The staked record for the season is 22-25-2. I track every pick here, win or lose, so you can see exactly how the reads hold up. It's analysis and entertainment, not financial advice. Every graded play is on the receipts page, and the full card is in the Week 4 overview.