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I’m leaning the Brewers on the moneyline in Game 4. Milwaukee leads the series 2-1, its bullpen has been close to perfect this postseason, and San Diego’s pen is short two of its best arms. This is close to a coin flip on price, and I like the team with the deeper bullpen.
The Matchup
- Milwaukee leads 2-1. One more win and the Brewers are in the Championship Series.
- The Brewers’ bullpen has a 0.64 ERA this postseason. San Diego’s is 1.69, and that was before it lost two key arms.
- San Diego’s pen is thin. Mason Miller is on the paternity list and Adrian Morejon is dealing with shoulder fatigue.
- The road has been rough for Milwaukee. The Brewers have lost 12 straight postseason road games, and that’s the main reason this is a lean. First pitch is 10:00 PM ET on FS1 at Petco Park.
The Pitching
San Diego starts Walker Buehler, 9-6 with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. His last three starts went 4.2, 6.2 and 3.2 innings with eight runs allowed. He’s a big-game pitcher by reputation, but he hasn’t been pitching like one lately, and he isn’t missing many bats.
Milwaukee hasn’t named a starter, and it’s likely a bullpen game with Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan or Quinn Patrick opening. Normally that would worry me. But this bullpen has given up almost nothing in October, and asking it to cover nine innings with the series on the line is a plan I can live with.
How I See It
My baseball numbers aren’t built yet. They come online for the Championship Series. So this is judgment, and it’s a lean with no stake. At -105 the Brewers need to win just over half the time. With Buehler struggling and San Diego short in the pen, I think they do. The risk is the road streak and a bullpen game going sideways early. Brewers on the moneyline, lean, confidence one.
Bottom Line
Take the Brewers on the moneyline at . Lean. Milwaukee has the better bullpen, a series lead, and gets a starter who hasn’t been sharp. The 12-game road streak is real, so this is close. It’s a judgment call without my numbers behind it yet, so it’s a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
Three legs that tell one story, all posted at the book on the parlay. If the Brewers win in San Diego, it’s most likely because their hitters get to Buehler early. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleMilwaukee’s hitters get to Buehler early and the bullpen holds the lead.
Build it at Fanatics →Fanatics prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Wednesday at 12:45 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Three bets beyond the moneyline, from either side. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a fair price behind it. These are separate bets from our pick, so size them small.
He’s cleared this in two of his last three games, with three in each.
- Trend2 of 3: 1, 3 and 3
- MatchupBuehler has allowed eight runs over his last three starts and isn’t missing bats
He’s cleared this in two of his last three games, with six total bases in one.
- Trend2 of 3: 4, 0 and 6
- MatchupBuehler’s 1.35 WHIP means traffic, and Contreras hits in the middle of it
He’s struck out 1, 6 and 3 in his last three starts.
- Trend2 of 3 under: 1, 6 and 3
- MatchupHis short outings cap his strikeout count, and Milwaukee puts the ball in play
Prices checked Wednesday at 12:45 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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