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Vikings vs Packers: Packers by a Touchdown at Lambeau

WEEK 10 · SUN NOV 15 · 1:00 PM ET · FOX
SLATELINES PICKS 21+ · sportsbook links pay us a commission

Our edge: Minnesota has 11 touchdowns all season and just traded for a quarterback who gets one week to learn his receivers. Jordan Love just threw for 372. Our score: Packers 24, Vikings 16.

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COMPARE ODDSBest price highlighted · 11:47 AM ET
OUR PICKSFanDuelFanaticsBetMGM
Packers −4.5−110n/an/a

21+. Tap any price to bet it at that book. SlateLines earns a commission from sportsbook links.

01 · POINT SPREADOUR PICK

Packers −4.5

Our number was built on a different quarterback

Our numbers had this game close, but they were built on Kyler Murray’s starts, and with Murray’s hamstring and a brand-new quarterback in the building, nobody knows who takes the first snap, so I’m going with the board side.

Monday showed what life looks like without Murray. Carson Wentz went 8 of 25 for 81 yards with two interceptions in a 23-6 loss to Buffalo, and his 2.3 QBR was the lowest of any quarterback this season, per ESPN. On Tuesday the Vikings sent a third-round pick to Las Vegas for Kirk Cousins. He threw 20 touchdowns for the Raiders and he ran Kevin O’Connell’s offense in 2022 and 2023. He also walked in the door on Tuesday and gets one week of practice with receivers he hasn’t thrown to in three years before he has to do it at Lambeau. That’s not a fix. That’s a crash course.

Passing yards per game
Packers290.9
Vikings179.6
2026 season through Week 9 (ESPN team stats)

Eleven touchdowns in eight games

The Vikings have scored 11 touchdowns all year. The winless Chargers also have 11. Minnesota has been held without a touchdown three times, and ESPN says the Vikings are the first team since 1925 with six wins and three touchdown-free games through eight. They average 18.3 points a game, and they’ve lost two straight since that 6-0 start.

Jordan LoveJordan LoveGB · QB

Jordan Love is cooking

Love has 2,618 yards with 19 touchdowns and six picks. Last week in New England he went 23 of 29 for 372 yards and three scores in a 45-27 win, and Christian Watson caught seven balls for 171. Watson has 879 yards and seven touchdowns on the year. Green Bay’s defense has 13 interceptions and the Packers are plus-8 in turnovers. They’ve won three of four at Lambeau. Go ahead and lay the four and a half.

Moneyline: who winsSPREAD IS THE BETTER BUY

You're paying −172 or more for the straight-up win. We have Green Bay by a touchdown, so lay the points.

Best price: −155 at FanaticsFanatics
How this blows up on me

Cousins finds Jefferson on day one. Justin Jefferson led the NFL with 1,809 receiving yards with Cousins throwing to him in 2022, and this Minnesota defense has 29 sacks and nine picks. If that old connection clicks right away and the Packers can't run it with Josh Jacobs out, that 39-22 opener stops looking like a fluke.

−4.5−110FanDuel
02 · PARLAYSSAME GAME

Parlays

MOST LIKELY2-Leg Same Game ParlaySGP
MIN @ GB · SUN 1:00 PM
Packers −4.5Spread−110
Under 41.5Total points−115
EST. ODDS+257
Build this ticketFanDuel
CRAZY BET2-Leg Same Game ParlaySGP
MIN @ GB · SUN 1:00 PM
Packers Defense anytime TDPlayer prop+400
Christian Watson anytime TDPlayer prop+165
EST. ODDS+1225
Build this ticketFanDuel

The book sets the final price. Same-game legs are linked, so it is usually lower than these estimates.

03 · TOTAL POINTSOVER / UNDER · OUR PICK

Under 41.5 total points

Recent games: combined pointsLINE: U 41.5
MIN26
34
29
GB37
46
72
vs INDWk 7✓ UNDER
@ DETWk 8✓ UNDER
vs BUFWk 9✓ UNDER
@ DETWk 7✓ UNDER
vs CARWk 8OVER
@ NEWk 9OVER
Under 41.5 in 4 of the last 6 games.Under 41.5  −115FanDuel›

Seven of Minnesota’s eight games have finished under 41.5. The only one that didn’t was the 39-22 opener against these Packers. The Vikings’ defense allows 14.5 points a game and has 29 sacks. This isn’t a weather call, either: the National Weather Service has mostly sunny skies and light wind in Green Bay. It’s a Minnesota offense that can’t get to 20. Our numbers now land on Packers 24, Vikings 16. Under 41.5.

Shop the numberFOR AN UNDER, HIGHER IS BETTER
U 41.5−115FanDuel
04 · LIVEIN-GAME

If this happens, tap that

Set before kickoff. Keep this open during the game. When one hits, tap it.

DON'T CHASEIf Cousins hits Jefferson for a long one early, don't panic into a live Packers ticket. The pregame bet is the bet.

21+. One live bet per trigger. Live odds move fast, so check the price before you bet.

WHO YOU GOT?

Can Kirk Cousins walk in Tuesday and win at Lambeau on Sunday?

Tell me I'm wrong.

PackersVikings

Go Pack Go.