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Vikings vs Packers: Packers by a Touchdown at Lambeau
WEEK 10 · SUN NOV 15 · 1:00 PM ET · FOXOur edge: Minnesota has 11 touchdowns all season and just traded for a quarterback who gets one week to learn his receivers. Jordan Love just threw for 372. Our score: Packers 24, Vikings 16.
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Packers −4.5
Our number was built on a different quarterback
Our numbers had this game close, but they were built on Kyler Murray’s starts, and with Murray’s hamstring and a brand-new quarterback in the building, nobody knows who takes the first snap, so I’m going with the board side.
Monday showed what life looks like without Murray. Carson Wentz went 8 of 25 for 81 yards with two interceptions in a 23-6 loss to Buffalo, and his 2.3 QBR was the lowest of any quarterback this season, per ESPN. On Tuesday the Vikings sent a third-round pick to Las Vegas for Kirk Cousins. He threw 20 touchdowns for the Raiders and he ran Kevin O’Connell’s offense in 2022 and 2023. He also walked in the door on Tuesday and gets one week of practice with receivers he hasn’t thrown to in three years before he has to do it at Lambeau. That’s not a fix. That’s a crash course.
Eleven touchdowns in eight games
The Vikings have scored 11 touchdowns all year. The winless Chargers also have 11. Minnesota has been held without a touchdown three times, and ESPN says the Vikings are the first team since 1925 with six wins and three touchdown-free games through eight. They average 18.3 points a game, and they’ve lost two straight since that 6-0 start.
Jordan LoveJordan Love is cooking
Love has 2,618 yards with 19 touchdowns and six picks. Last week in New England he went 23 of 29 for 372 yards and three scores in a 45-27 win, and Christian Watson caught seven balls for 171. Watson has 879 yards and seven touchdowns on the year. Green Bay’s defense has 13 interceptions and the Packers are plus-8 in turnovers. They’ve won three of four at Lambeau. Go ahead and lay the four and a half.
You're paying −172 or more for the straight-up win. We have Green Bay by a touchdown, so lay the points.
Cousins finds Jefferson on day one. Justin Jefferson led the NFL with 1,809 receiving yards with Cousins throwing to him in 2022, and this Minnesota defense has 29 sacks and nine picks. If that old connection clicks right away and the Packers can't run it with Josh Jacobs out, that 39-22 opener stops looking like a fluke.
Parlays
The book sets the final price. Same-game legs are linked, so it is usually lower than these estimates.
Under 41.5 total points
Seven of Minnesota’s eight games have finished under 41.5. The only one that didn’t was the 39-22 opener against these Packers. The Vikings’ defense allows 14.5 points a game and has 29 sacks. This isn’t a weather call, either: the National Weather Service has mostly sunny skies and light wind in Green Bay. It’s a Minnesota offense that can’t get to 20. Our numbers now land on Packers 24, Vikings 16. Under 41.5.

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Can Kirk Cousins walk in Tuesday and win at Lambeau on Sunday?
Tell me I'm wrong.
Go Pack Go.