The Chargers won eleven games last season. Their points said they were a nine-win team. Both of those things are true, and only one of them tells you anything about 2026.
That is what Pythagorean wins are for. It is a way to work out how many games a team should have won using nothing but the points it scored and the points it gave up. I run it before I look at a single win total, and it has talked me out of more bets than it has talked me into.
The simple explanation
Records lie. A team can go 11-6 by winning six close games by three points each. Another team can go 8-9 after two blowout losses and four games that came down to the last play. Those two teams are much closer than the standings make them look, and the next season usually shows it.
The points tell the truth. This formula turns the points into a win total, and then you can hold that number up against what a sportsbook is offering.
Here it is for the NFL:
Expected wins = 17 x (Points For ^ 2.37) / (Points For ^ 2.37 + Points Against ^ 2.37)
That 2.37 is just the number that has matched real NFL results best over the years. You do not have to remember it. You only need to know the formula exists and that it beats reading the standings.
A worked example, using two real teams
Last season the Jets scored 300 points and gave up 503. Run those through the formula and you get 3.9 expected wins. They finished 3-14. The math and the record agree, which tells you something useful: there was no good team hiding in that Jets roster. They were as bad as they looked.
Now the 49ers. San Francisco scored 437 and gave up 371. That works out to 10.1 expected wins. They finished 12-5. So they won almost two more games than their points say they should have. That gap is why I am on their Under this season.
Neither number is wrong. They answer different questions. The record says what happened. The formula says what probably should have happened. The next season usually looks more like the second one.
Why the gap matters more than either number
When a team wins more games than its points say it should, something lucky usually did the work. Most of the time it is turnover margin, which is takeaways minus giveaways. That is a number that never stays extreme for long. Recover a pile of fumbles one year and you will recover a normal amount the next, no matter how good the coach is.
Sometimes it is the team’s record in close games instead. Those are much closer to a coin flip than anyone likes to admit.
Either way, betting the Under on that team is not the same as calling them bad. You are betting that the luck does not show up twice. That is worth knowing when you read our previews. We took the Under on a 12-win San Francisco team without ever saying they were poor.
What it cannot do
This formula only looks backward. It has no idea what changed over the summer. It does not know that a quarterback tore up his knee in December, or that four starters signed somewhere else.
So use it alongside a projection that looks forward, like the ones Pro Football Focus puts out. Those already account for the new schedule and the new roster. When the two numbers disagree, trust the one looking forward.
It also falls apart in college football. Teams play 12 games instead of 17, and the big programs win by 45 against opponents they were never going to lose to. That makes the points look better than the team really is. For college we use SP+ or ESPN’s Football Power Index.
What trips people up
A gap is not a bet. A team that finished two wins short of its points is not automatically an Over, and you still have to ask what caused the gap and whether that cause is going away.
Sometimes the backward number is simply broken. If a team’s starting quarterback missed eight games, then eight games of backup play are baked into those points, and the formula makes the team look worse than it really is. Baltimore is the example. Their backup threw four interceptions and no touchdowns.
Then there is the price, which is the one that has cost me the most. A two-win edge can be a worse bet than a half-win edge if you have to risk too much to get it. The formula tells you which side to be on. It tells you nothing about whether that side is worth what the book is charging.
How to use this
Take a team’s points scored and points allowed from last season and run the formula. Compare your answer to the win total the book is posting. Half a win apart is nothing. Two wins apart is worth a closer look.
Then do the rest of the work. Start with the turnover margin, because that is where most fake gaps come from. Look at who left over the summer. The schedule matters too, and it is the thing this formula is blindest to. Price comes last, and it is the step people skip.
Every team preview we publish runs this math and shows the work, so you can see the gap and disagree with how we read it. For how much money to actually put behind an opinion, the guide to units covers that side of it.
Quick reference
Formula (NFL): 17 x PF^2.37 / (PF^2.37 + PA^2.37)
What it answers: how many games the scoreboard earned
Gap to act on: roughly a win or more against the posted total
Always check next: turnover margin, then the offseason, then the price
Do not use for: college football, where SP+ and FPI are the right anchors
One last thing
Pythagorean wins will not tell you who wins on Sunday. They tell you when a sportsbook has priced a whole season off last year’s record instead of the football behind it. That is usually where the value sits in season-long bets. It is the first number I look up and the last one I argue with. When you are ready to shop a number, our sportsbook reviews cover which apps price futures well.
21+ · Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER