The write-up

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I went 5-2 on NFL featured picks in Week 3, Thursday included, and every one of them was a lean with no stake. The full board of 16 games went 10-6. Here's all of it, starting with the one I got most wrong.

Monday night: I overrode the numbers, and the numbers were right Eagles minus three and a half lost 27-7 in Chicago. That's a twenty-point miss, and it's on me.

Our numbers had Chicago by two. When Caleb Williams was ruled out and Case Keenum got the start, I used our override rule and flipped the pick to Philadelphia. The market had moved five points toward the Eagles, and I didn't think I could price a 38-year-old who hadn't thrown a pass since 2023. Keenum threw two touchdowns. The Eagles turned it over three times, forced none, and lost Jalen Hurts for part of the second quarter to a concussion check.

The honest read is that the Bears defense, the reason our numbers liked Chicago, didn't need Williams to win this game. I let the quarterback news outweigh everything else the numbers knew. The override rule exists for real information, and this was real information. It still pointed the wrong way.

The Saints lost a game they led Saints minus three and a half lost 35-27 at home. New Orleans led by eleven. Then a disputed strip-sack of Tyler Shough in the third quarter, ruled a fumble instead of an incomplete pass, set up a Raiders touchdown, and late Saints turnovers finished it. Kirk Cousins threw for 248 yards and three scores.

The gap on this one was under a point, which is why it was a lean. The Raiders are 3-0, and I keep underrating a team our preview had winning five games.

What went right Colts plus one and a half won outright, 19-17, on a field goal with 16 seconds left. It ended a nine-game losing streak.

Giants minus two and a half won 12-7 in the rain on four field goals and an interception with 17 seconds left. Jameis Winston didn't have to be great.

Cowboys plus three and a half covered by half a point. Baltimore won 34-31 on a 56-yard field goal at the buzzer in Rio.

Denver plus two and a half won outright, 30-26, coming back from sixteen down at halftime. Bo Nix scored the winner from inches out with 47 seconds left.

Thursday's Falcons plus four and a half won 35-14 outright.

The parlays The same-game parlays went 1-5. The Cowboys one cashed: Dallas covered, CeeDee Lamb had 112 receiving yards, and Dak Prescott threw for 276. The rest each lost at least one leg. Jonathan Taylor ran for 68 against a line of 81.5, Cam Skattebo went over his rushing line but didn't score, and Jaylen Waddle caught two passes for 10 yards in a game Denver won. Every parlay was a lean with no stake.

Upsets Chicago by twenty with its third quarterback. Las Vegas at New Orleans. Cleveland over Carolina, Washington over Seattle, and Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, all as underdogs we had on the overview.

The number I'm watching Last week our biggest gaps went 0-6. This week the four biggest on the overview went 3-1, and the two featured games over our warning line, Denver and the Colts, both won. Among the featured games, the one that lost was the one where I overrode the gap. That's two weeks pointing in opposite directions, so I'm not changing anything yet. But Monday is a note to myself: an override needs a reason the numbers can't see, not just a scary name on the injury report.

Bottom Line NFL Week 3: 5-2 on featured picks, 10-6 on the full board, 1-5 on parlays, and no stake on any of it. The staked record is unchanged at 21-22-2 for the season. Every graded play is on the receipts page, and the full card is in the Week 3 overview.