SlateLines (Tally LLC) earns a commission when you sign up through our links. That never affects our analysis.
I’ll take Cleveland plus two and a half at home on Thursday night. The numbers have this game close to a coin flip with the Browns a hair better at home, the board has Pittsburgh by a field goal minus a hook, and the line is already moving our way. That’s a half play.
The Matchup
- Both teams are 2-1, and neither has looked it. The Steelers beat Atlanta 20-13, got blown out 20-3 at New England, then beat Cincinnati 30-27. The Browns lost 34-10 at Jacksonville, won 23-19 at Tampa Bay, and beat Carolina 21-18 on a Deshaun Watson touchdown to Harold Fannin Jr. with 1:48 left. Pittsburgh has been outscored by seven points on the year, Cleveland by 17.
- Aaron Rodgers just had his best game. He threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns against the Bengals, and the Steelers averaged seven yards a play. He’s also been very good on Thursdays over his career, which is the best argument for the other side.
- Pittsburgh’s secondary is hurting. Jalen Ramsey has a broken wrist. He was limited in practice and says he wants to play, but he’ll be protecting it if he does. Corner Brandin Echols is in the concussion protocol, and running back Rico Dowdle (toe) didn’t practice.
- Cleveland is patching the middle of its line. Center Elgton Jenkins is in the concussion protocol, so Luke Wypler starts. Tytus Howard (knee) and Teven Jenkins (back) were limited. Quinshon Judkins had his best game last week with 70 yards on 18 carries. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video at Huntington Bank Field.
The Number
Our preview had Pittsburgh at 8.8 wins on last year’s scoring, then knocked it down to about eight once you take out a plus-12 turnover year that doesn’t repeat. We use the adjusted eight. Cleveland’s scoring last year was worth about 5.5 wins. At one point per projected win and three for home field, that’s Cleveland by half a point. The board has Pittsburgh by two and a half, so we’re three points on the Browns. That’s a real disagreement, and it’s under our four-point warning line.
The market agrees with us on direction. The early number on this game was Pittsburgh minus three, and it’s down to two and a half now. When the line moves toward our side before we bet it, that’s the kind of disagreement I’m willing to stake.
Here’s what keeps it a half play and not more. Cleveland has won two straight while losing the yards-per-play battle in both, and a minus-17 scoring margin says they’ve been a little lucky. Our preview liked the Browns over their win total because the defense was fine last year and the offense only needed to be less bad. Three weeks in, that’s roughly what’s happening. We had Pittsburgh under its total because the turnover luck would run out, and they’re minus seven in points even after Sunday’s shootout. Neither team is proving us wrong yet. Cleveland plus two and a half, half play, confidence three.
In-Game Bets
- If Ramsey is inactive. The price on Cleveland may shorten before kickoff. If you haven’t bet it yet and it’s still plus two and a half, it’s a better bet than it was.
- If Pittsburgh leads by a touchdown at halftime. Look at Cleveland on the live number. This is a low-scoring rivalry game, and a seven-point lead is not what it looks like when neither offense moves the ball easily.
- If Rodgers is over 150 passing yards at halftime. Leave it. That’s the version of this game where he’s picking on a hurting secondary, and it’s the one way our side loses.
Bottom Line
Take Cleveland plus two and a half at . Half play ($12.50). The numbers have the Browns by half a point at home, the board has them getting two and a half, and the line has already come down from three. That’s a three-point gap with the market moving our way. Pittsburgh’s banged-up secondary helps, and Rodgers on a Thursday is the risk.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs, all posted at the book on the card. If Cleveland covers, it’s most likely because Watson is finding Denzel Boston against a Pittsburgh secondary that’s missing Joey Porter Jr. and playing Jalen Ramsey through a broken wrist. Jaylen Warren is the other leg. With Rico Dowdle out he’s Pittsburgh’s whole backfield, and he’s over this receiving number in every game this year. All three legs need the same night, so this is one position, not three bets.
The angleCleveland covers with Watson throwing at Pittsburgh’s backup corners, and Warren still gets his catches out of the backfield.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Prop lines as posted Thursday at 1:50 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Three bets beyond the spread. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a fair price behind it. These are separate bets from our pick, so size them small.
Pittsburgh is down its top corner and the next one up is playing with a broken wrist, and Boston has cleared this number every week.
- Trend3 for 3 this season: 59, 95 and 41 yards, 65 a game
- MatchupJoey Porter Jr. is out, and Jalen Ramsey is questionable with a broken bone in his wrist
He has topped this in two of three starts, and tonight he throws at a secondary missing one starting corner with another playing hurt.
- Trend2 for 3 this season: 205, 238 and 144 yards
- MatchupPorter is out and Ramsey is questionable. Pittsburgh ranks 8th in passing yards allowed, so this one is about who is on the field tonight
He has caught two of Watson’s five touchdown passes, and he is the receiver most likely to see the backup corners.
- TrendScored in 2 of 3 games
- MatchupThe same hurting secondary, and a price that pays like he scores about one game in four
Prices checked Thursday at 1:50 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
21+ · Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
The Daily Slate
Sign up for daily picks.
21+. Unsubscribe anytime.