SlateLines (Tally LLC) earns a commission when you sign up through our links. That never affects our analysis.
SlateLines earns a commission from sportsbook links on this page. 21+ and present in a legal state. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
I like Missouri minus three and a half at home, but this is the game of the week where I trust the numbers least. They make Missouri almost a ten-point favorite. The board says three and a half. When the gap is that big, the right move is to ask what the numbers are missing before you bet it, so it’s a lean.
The Matchup
- Missouri just had its best game in years. The Tigers are 4-1 and No. 14 after beating previously unbeaten Florida 45-17 as an underdog. Jamal Roberts ran for 211 yards and three touchdowns, and Austin Simmons threw for 340. Simmons has 13 touchdowns and no interceptions this season. The only loss was 31-24 at Mississippi State.
- Texas A&M can’t throw it. The Aggies are 3-2, and their passing offense ranks 127th in the country. Marcel Reed is completing 57% of his passes with six touchdowns and four interceptions. They lost to Kentucky as a 16-point favorite and lost 35-6 at LSU before running for 231 yards in a 34-7 win over Arkansas.
- Missouri’s run defense is built for this. The Tigers allow 2.6 yards a carry, among the best in the country. An A&M offense that has to run to move the ball is running into the wrong defense.
- The injuries are on Missouri’s side of the ledger. Defensive ends Langden Kitchen and Darris Smith both missed the Florida game and are questionable, and Eli Drinkwitz says he won’t know until Thursday or Friday. Right tackle Josh Atkins is out. A&M lost receiver Terry Bussey for the season in September. A&M won this game 38-17 last year. Kickoff is noon ET on ABC.
The Number
The current ratings, updated after Week 5, have Missouri seven points better than Texas A&M on a neutral field. Give Missouri two and a half for playing at home and that’s Missouri by almost ten. The board has Missouri by three and a half. That’s six points on the Tigers, past our four-point warning line.
So I went looking for what the ratings are missing. Two things. First, Missouri jumped ten spots in the ratings after the Florida game, and one huge win can move a rating more than it should. Second, the two defensive ends. If both sit, the pass rush that made the Florida game look easy is short-handed. The line has barely moved, from three to three and a half, even with most of the money on Missouri. A half point is a small reaction to that much money, and it tells me the books respect A&M more than the ratings do.
I still land on Missouri. A&M’s offense is a running offense with no passing game, and Missouri stops the run. Laying three and a half at home is a lot less than the ten the numbers say. But when the gap is this big and I can name two reasons it might be wrong, I don’t put a stake on it. Missouri minus three and a half, lean, confidence one.
In-Game Bets
- If A&M has fewer than 60 rushing yards at halftime. That’s Missouri’s run defense winning the game. Hold the pregame side.
- If Reed is throwing more than 25 times. A&M is in trouble. Look at Missouri on the live spread.
- If A&M leads at halftime. Don’t chase it. This is the scenario where the ratings were wrong, and the market never moved much our way.
Bottom Line
Take Missouri minus three and a half at -110 at Fanatics. Lean. The numbers make Missouri almost a ten-point favorite at home, and the board asks three and a half. That gap is past our warning line, the Florida win may be inflating the rating, and two defensive ends are questionable. A&M can’t throw against a defense that stops the run, so I’m still on Missouri, but it’s a lean at confidence one.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in two legs, both posted at the book on the card. If Missouri covers, it’s most likely because A&M can’t run and can’t throw. Texas A&M has gone under the total in two of its last three games. Both legs need the same afternoon, so this is one position, not two bets. Size it small.
The angleMissouri covers by shutting down A&M’s run game and keeping the game under 48.5.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Wednesday at 5:00 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket.
21+ · Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
21+. Unsubscribe anytime.