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46 college games on Saturday, and a side on every one of them. Six get a full write-up, led by Georgia at Alabama and the Red River Rivalry. The method is the same in every row: the current college ratings, updated after Week 5, two and a half points for the home team (none in Dallas, where Texas and Oklahoma play on a neutral field), and the gap between that projection and the number on the board. A gap of two points or more is a disagreement. Under two is a lean. Over four is a warning, because a gap that big usually means the ratings are missing something the market already knows. No totals, no props.
The Whole Board
| Kickoff | Matchup | Line | Our pick | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAT 12:00 PM ET | Indiana at Nebraska | Nebraska +7.5 | Indiana −7.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 12:00 PM ET | Texas A&M at Missouri | Missouri −3.5 | Missouri −3.5 | −110Fanatics | Write-up |
| SAT 12:00 PM ET | UCF at Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State −10.5 | UCF +10.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 12:00 PM ET | North Carolina at Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh −3.5 | Pittsburgh −3.5 | −105FanDuel | |
| SAT 12:00 PM ET | Arizona at West Virginia | West Virginia +3.5 | Arizona −3.5 | −115Fanatics | |
| SAT 12:00 PM ET | Wake Forest at NC State | NC State +3.5 | Wake Forest −3.5 | −105Fanatics | |
| SAT 12:00 PM ET | Tulane at Army | Army −3.5 | Army −3.5 | +100Fanatics | |
| SAT 12:00 PM ET | Sacramento State at Bowling Green | Bowling Green −7.5 | Sacramento State +7.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 12:30 PM ET | Ball State at Northwestern | Northwestern −36.5 | Northwestern −36.5 | −105Fanatics | |
| SAT 12:45 PM ET | South Carolina at Florida | Florida −12.5 | South Carolina +12.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 1:00 PM ET | Old Dominion at App State | App State −9.5 | App State −9.5 | −115Fanatics | |
| SAT 2:00 PM ET | Miami (OH) at UMass | UMass +2.5 | UMass +2.5 | −118FanDuel | |
| SAT 3:30 PM ET | Texas at Oklahoma | Oklahoma +7.5 | Texas −7.5 | −110Fanatics | Write-up |
| SAT 3:30 PM ET | Stanford at Notre Dame | Notre Dame −37.5 | Notre Dame −37.5 | −115Fanatics | |
| SAT 3:30 PM ET | Ole Miss at Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt +10.5 | Vanderbilt +9.5 | −110Fanatics | Write-up |
| SAT 3:30 PM ET | UCLA at Oregon | Oregon −11.5 | UCLA +11.5 | −110Fanatics | Write-up |
| SAT 3:30 PM ET | Houston at Kansas State | Kansas State −2.5 | Houston +2.5 | −105Fanatics | |
| SAT 3:30 PM ET | Duke at Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech +6.5 | Duke −6.5 | −115Fanatics | |
| SAT 3:30 PM ET | Virginia Tech at California | California +9.5 | Virginia Tech −9.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 3:30 PM ET | Illinois at Michigan State | Michigan State +2.5 | Illinois −2.5 | −115Fanatics | |
| SAT 3:30 PM ET | Charlotte at North Texas | North Texas −28.5 | North Texas −28.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 3:30 PM ET | Tulsa at Navy | Navy −2.5 | Navy −2.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 3:30 PM ET | Eastern Michigan at Akron | Akron +6.5 | Eastern Michigan −6.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 3:30 PM ET | Buffalo at Toledo | Toledo −20.5 | Toledo −20.5 | −108FanDuel | |
| SAT 3:30 PM ET | Central Michigan at Ohio | Ohio −2.5 | Ohio −2.5 | −105Fanatics | |
| SAT 3:30 PM ET | Kent State at Western Michigan | Western Michigan −13.5 | Western Michigan −13.5 | −115Fanatics | |
| SAT 3:45 PM ET | UConn at Temple | Temple −3.5 | UConn +3.5 | −105Fanatics | |
| SAT 4:00 PM ET | Rice at East Carolina | East Carolina −9.5 | East Carolina −9.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 4:15 PM ET | Maryland at Ohio State | Ohio State −34.5 | Maryland +34.5 | −110FanDuel | |
| SAT 4:15 PM ET | Tennessee at Arkansas | Arkansas +13.5 | Tennessee −13.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 6:00 PM ET | San Diego State at Oregon State | Oregon State −14.5 | Oregon State −14.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 7:00 PM ET | LSU at Kentucky | Kentucky +8.5 | LSU −8.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 7:00 PM ET | UAB at Memphis | Memphis −14.5 | Memphis −14.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 7:00 PM ET | Nevada at UTEP | UTEP +8.5 | Nevada −8.5 | Kicked off | |
| SAT 7:00 PM ET | North Dakota State at UNLV | UNLV +3.5 | North Dakota State −3.5 | −102FanDuel | |
| SAT 7:00 PM ET | Coastal Carolina at Marshall | Marshall −2.5 | Coastal Carolina +2.5 | −105Fanatics | |
| SAT 7:30 PM ET | Georgia at Alabama | Alabama −1.5 | Georgia +1.5 | −110Fanatics | Write-up |
| SAT 7:30 PM ET | USC at Penn State | Penn State −1.5 | USC +1.5 | −110FanDuel | Write-up |
| SAT 7:30 PM ET | Syracuse at Virginia | Virginia −9.5 | Virginia −9.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 7:30 PM ET | Air Force at Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois +7.5 | Air Force −7.5 | −106FanDuel | |
| SAT 7:30 PM ET | James Madison at Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern +7.5 | James Madison −7.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 7:30 PM ET | Louisiana at Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech −2.5 | Louisiana +2.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 8:00 PM ET | Minnesota at Purdue | Purdue +2.5 | Minnesota −2.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 9:30 PM ET | Hawaii at Arizona State | Arizona State −20.5 | Hawaii +20.5 | −105FanDuel | |
| SAT 10:15 PM ET | Kansas at Utah | Utah −15.5 | Utah −15.5 | −110Fanatics | |
| SAT 10:30 PM ET | Boise State at Fresno State | Fresno State +6.5 | Fresno State +6.5 | −105Fanatics |
Lines in the table are as of Wednesday afternoon; the price column updates live. If a number has moved, the pick stands at the new number only if the gap still points the same way.
Featured Picks
Texas A&M at Missouri
The ratings make this Missouri by 9.7 and the board asks three and a half. That gap is past our warning line, Missouri jumped ten spots in the ratings after one big win, and two of its defensive ends are questionable. A&M still can’t throw against a defense that stops the run. Lean, no stake. Take Missouri −3.5 at −110Fanatics Full breakdown →
Texas at Oklahoma
The ratings make this Texas by 9.9 on a neutral field and the board asks seven and a half. Oklahoma hasn’t scored a touchdown against Texas in two years. The line has come down from nine and a half, so it’s small. Light play. Take Texas −7.5 at −110Fanatics Full breakdown →
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt
The ratings make this Ole Miss by 3.4 and the board asks nearly ten. The Ole Miss defense gave up 52 at Florida, but the gap is past our warning line and Vanderbilt’s quarterback, Jared Curtis, is questionable. Lean, no stake. Take Vanderbilt +9.5 at −110Fanatics Full breakdown →
UCLA at Oregon
The ratings make this Oregon by 9.9 with Dante Moore, and Moore is unlikely to play. Adjusted for the backup, it’s closer to Oregon by eight. UCLA leads the country in yards per carry, and the line has come our way. Light play. Take UCLA +11.5 at −110Fanatics Full breakdown →
Georgia at Alabama
The ratings make this Georgia by 2.5 in Tuscaloosa and the board has Alabama by one and a half. That’s four points, right at our warning line, and the line has moved toward Alabama, so it’s small. Light play. Take Georgia +1.5 at −110Fanatics Full breakdown →
USC at Penn State
The ratings make this USC by a half point and the board has Penn State by one and a half. Penn State scored 33 points in two Big Ten losses, but the money flipped this line to Penn State and USC has covered once all year. Lean, no stake. Take USC +1.5 at −110FanDuel Full breakdown →
Every Other Game
One sentence each, in kickoff order. 20 of these carry a gap over our four-point warning line. Those rows have a side because the board is complete, not because I like them.
- Indiana at Nebraska: the ratings make it Indiana by 7.7, and the board says Indiana by 7.5. Take Indiana −7.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
- UCF at Oklahoma State: the ratings make it Oklahoma State by 4.6, and the board says Oklahoma State by 10.5. Take UCF +10.5. That’s 5.9 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- North Carolina at Pittsburgh: the ratings make it Pittsburgh by 15.3, and the board says Pittsburgh by 3.5. Take Pittsburgh −3.5. That’s 11.8 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- Arizona at West Virginia: the ratings make it Arizona by 10, and the board says Arizona by 3.5. Take Arizona −3.5. That’s 6.5 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- Wake Forest at NC State: the ratings make it Wake Forest by 5.2, and the board says Wake Forest by 3.5. Take Wake Forest −3.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
- Tulane at Army: the ratings make it Army by 7.8, and the board says Army by 3.5. Take Army −3.5. That’s 4.3 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- Sacramento State at Bowling Green: the ratings make it Bowling Green by 2.1, and the board says Bowling Green by 7.5. Take Sacramento State +7.5. That’s 5.4 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- Ball State at Northwestern: the ratings make it Northwestern by 37.5, and the board says Northwestern by 36.5. Take Northwestern −36.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
- South Carolina at Florida: the ratings make it Florida by 8.4, and the board says Florida by 12.5. Take South Carolina +12.5. That’s 4.1 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- Old Dominion at App State: the ratings make it App State by 10.4, and the board says App State by 9.5. Take App State −9.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
- Miami (OH) at UMass: the ratings make it UMass by 0.4, and the board says Miami (OH) by 2.5. Take UMass +2.5. A 2.9-point disagreement.
- Stanford at Notre Dame: the ratings make it Notre Dame by 42.8, and the board says Notre Dame by 37.5. Take Notre Dame −37.5. That’s 5.3 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- Houston at Kansas State: the ratings make it Kansas State by 1.2, and the board says Kansas State by 2.5. Take Houston +2.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
- Duke at Georgia Tech: the ratings make it Duke by 8.1, and the board says Duke by 6.5. Take Duke −6.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
- Virginia Tech at California: the ratings make it Virginia Tech by 13.7, and the board says Virginia Tech by 9.5. Take Virginia Tech −9.5. That’s 4.2 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- Illinois at Michigan State: the ratings make it Illinois by 5.8, and the board says Illinois by 2.5. Take Illinois −2.5. A 3.3-point disagreement.
- Charlotte at North Texas: the ratings make it North Texas by 28.5, and the board says North Texas by 28.5. Take North Texas −28.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
- Tulsa at Navy: the ratings make it Navy by 4.8, and the board says Navy by 2.5. Take Navy −2.5. A 2.3-point disagreement.
- Eastern Michigan at Akron: the ratings make it Eastern Michigan by 10.8, and the board says Eastern Michigan by 6.5. Take Eastern Michigan −6.5. That’s 4.3 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- Buffalo at Toledo: the ratings make it Toledo by 22.5, and the board says Toledo by 20.5. Take Toledo −20.5. A 2-point disagreement.
- Central Michigan at Ohio: the ratings make it Ohio by 7, and the board says Ohio by 2.5. Take Ohio −2.5. That’s 4.5 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- Kent State at Western Michigan: the ratings make it Western Michigan by 17.4, and the board says Western Michigan by 13.5. Take Western Michigan −13.5. A 3.9-point disagreement.
- UConn at Temple: the ratings make it Temple by 1.4, and the board says Temple by 3.5. Take UConn +3.5. A 2.1-point disagreement.
- Rice at East Carolina: the ratings make it East Carolina by 13.2, and the board says East Carolina by 9.5. Take East Carolina −9.5. A 3.7-point disagreement.
- Maryland at Ohio State: the ratings make it Ohio State by 30.6, and the board says Ohio State by 34.5. Take Maryland +34.5. A 3.9-point disagreement.
- Tennessee at Arkansas: the ratings make it Tennessee by 18.9, and the board says Tennessee by 13.5. Take Tennessee −13.5. That’s 5.4 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- San Diego State at Oregon State: the ratings make it Oregon State by 15.1, and the board says Oregon State by 14.5. Take Oregon State −14.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
- LSU at Kentucky: the ratings make it LSU by 13, and the board says LSU by 8.5. Take LSU −8.5. That’s 4.5 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- UAB at Memphis: the ratings make it Memphis by 20.2, and the board says Memphis by 14.5. Take Memphis −14.5. That’s 5.7 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- Nevada at UTEP: the ratings make it Nevada by 17, and the board says Nevada by 8.5. Take Nevada −8.5. That’s 8.5 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- North Dakota State at UNLV: the ratings make it North Dakota State by 10.2, and the board says North Dakota State by 3.5. Take North Dakota State −3.5. That’s 6.7 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- Coastal Carolina at Marshall: the ratings make it Coastal Carolina by 0.9, and the board says Marshall by 2.5. Take Coastal Carolina +2.5. A 3.4-point disagreement.
- Syracuse at Virginia: the ratings make it Virginia by 11, and the board says Virginia by 9.5. Take Virginia −9.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
- Air Force at Northern Illinois: the ratings make it Air Force by 20.8, and the board says Air Force by 7.5. Take Air Force −7.5. That’s 13.3 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- James Madison at Georgia Southern: the ratings make it James Madison by 15, and the board says James Madison by 7.5. Take James Madison −7.5. That’s 7.5 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- Louisiana at Louisiana Tech: the ratings make it Louisiana by 4.6, and the board says Louisiana Tech by 2.5. Take Louisiana +2.5. That’s 7.1 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- Minnesota at Purdue: the ratings make it Minnesota by 6.6, and the board says Minnesota by 2.5. Take Minnesota −2.5. That’s 4.1 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- Hawaii at Arizona State: the ratings make it Arizona State by 15.3, and the board says Arizona State by 20.5. Take Hawaii +20.5. That’s 5.2 points of daylight, over our four-point warning line, so read it as a flag, not a play.
- Kansas at Utah: the ratings make it Utah by 16.7, and the board says Utah by 15.5. Take Utah −15.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
- Boise State at Fresno State: the ratings make it Boise State by 5.4, and the board says Boise State by 6.5. Take Fresno State +6.5. Under two points, so it’s a lean.
Bottom Line
Three staked plays on Saturday, all in the write-ups. Texas −7.5, UCLA +11.5 and Georgia +1.5 are light plays. Missouri, Vanderbilt and USC are leans with no stake, and Missouri and Vanderbilt both carry gaps past our warning line. Every other row on this board is a tracked pick with no stake on it, and every one gets graded on the receipts page either way. If I had to pick one, it’s UCLA: the numbers like the Bruins before the Oregon quarterback news, and the line has already moved our way.
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