Every pick we post is graded and listed here. Featured picks is the record of our Featured picks; All picks counts every graded pick.
DateMatchupPickResultFinal score
Oct 12Bills vs RamsMatthew Stafford Over 277.5 passing yards (−114)LeanWBUF 37, LAR 34
Oct 12Bills vs RamsJames Cook Over 75.5 rushing yards (−114)LeanWBUF 37, LAR 34
Oct 12Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles RamsLos Angeles -3.5 (+100)LeanLBUF 37, LAR 34
Oct 12Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles RamsMatthew Stafford Over 277.5 passing yards (−114)LeanWBUF 37, LAR 34
Oct 12Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles RamsJames Cook Over 75.5 rushing yards (−114)LeanWBUF 37, LAR 34
Oct 12Rams −3.5 + Matthew Stafford Over 278.5 pass yds + Matthew Stafford Over 23.5 comp3-leg same-game parlay · Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles RamsLeanLBUF 37, LAR 34
Oct 11Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta FalconsAtlanta -3.5 (−100)LeanLBAL 30, ATL 23
Oct 11Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta FalconsDrake London Over 80.5 receiving yards (−114)LeanWBAL 30, ATL 23
Oct 11Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta FalconsDerrick Henry Over 19.5 carries (−114)LeanWBAL 30, ATL 23
Oct 11Cardinals +5.5 + Jared Goff Over 25.5 comp + Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 rec3-leg same-game parlay · Detroit Lions @ Arizona CardinalsLeanLDET 45, ARI 21
Oct 11Chargers +3.5 + Omarion Hampton Over 40.5 rush yds + Omarion Hampton Over 10.5 carries3-leg same-game parlay · Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles ChargersLeanLDEN 23, LAC 17
Oct 11Chicago Bears vs Green Bay PackersGreen Bay +1.5 (−110)LeanWCHI 7, GB 31
Oct 11Chicago Bears vs Green Bay PackersTucker Kraft Under 49.5 receiving yards (−114)LeanLCHI 7, GB 31
Oct 11Chicago Bears vs Green Bay PackersJordan Love Under 233.5 passing yards (−115)LeanLCHI 7, GB 31
Oct 11Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami DolphinsMiami +6.5 (−105)LeanLCIN 31, MIA 24
Oct 11Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami DolphinsMalik Willis Over 192.5 passing yards (−114)LeanLCIN 31, MIA 24
Oct 11Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami DolphinsChase Brown Under 67.5 rushing yards (−114)LeanWCIN 31, MIA 24
Oct 11Cleveland Browns vs New York JetsNew York -2.5 (−110)LeanWCLE 12, NYJ 17
Oct 11Cleveland Browns vs New York JetsGeno Smith Over 207.5 passing yards (−111)LeanLCLE 12, NYJ 17
Oct 11Cleveland Browns vs New York JetsQuinshon Judkins Over 2.5 receptions (−120)LeanWCLE 12, NYJ 17
Oct 11Colts +2.5 + Jonathan Taylor Over 86.5 rush yds + Josh Downs Over 58.5 rec yds3-leg same-game parlay · Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh SteelersLeanLIND 22, PIT 34
Oct 11Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles ChargersLos Angeles +3.5 (−115)LeanLDEN 23, LAC 17
Oct 11Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles ChargersOmarion Hampton Over 37.5 rushing yards (−114)LeanLDEN 23, LAC 17
Oct 11Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles ChargersOmarion Hampton Over 10.5 carries (−122)LeanWDEN 23, LAC 17
Oct 11Detroit Lions vs Arizona CardinalsArizona +5.5 (−110)LeanLDET 45, ARI 21
Oct 11Detroit Lions vs Arizona CardinalsJared Goff Over 24.5 completions (−115)LeanLDET 45, ARI 21
Oct 11Detroit Lions vs Arizona CardinalsJared Goff Over 280.5 passing yards (−114)LeanLDET 45, ARI 21
Oct 11Dolphins +7 + Malik Willis Over 190.5 pass yds + Chase Brown Under 67.5 rush yds3-leg same-game parlay · Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami DolphinsLeanLCIN 31, MIA 24
Oct 11Eagles +7.5 + Trevor Lawrence Under 225.5 pass yds + Parker Washington Under 60.5 rec yds3-leg same-game parlay · Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville JaguarsLeanLPHI 17, JAX 19
Oct 11Falcons −3.5 + Drake London Over 80.5 rec yds + Derrick Henry Over 19.5 carries3-leg same-game parlay · Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta FalconsLeanLBAL 30, ATL 23
Oct 11Houston Texans vs Tennessee TitansTennessee +7.5 (−110)LeanLHOU 26, TEN 3
Oct 11Houston Texans vs Tennessee TitansTony Pollard Over 49.5 rushing yards (−114)LeanWHOU 26, TEN 3
Oct 11Houston Texans vs Tennessee TitansC.J. Stroud Over 241.5 passing yards (−115)LeanWHOU 26, TEN 3
Oct 11Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh SteelersIndianapolis +2.5 (+100)LeanLIND 22, PIT 34
Oct 11Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh SteelersJonathan Taylor Over 84.5 rushing yards (−112)LeanLIND 22, PIT 34
Oct 11Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh SteelersJosh Downs Over 57.5 receiving yards (−115)LeanLIND 22, PIT 34
Oct 11Jets −2.5 + Geno Smith Over 206.5 pass yds + Quinshon Judkins Over 2.5 rec3-leg same-game parlay · Cleveland Browns @ New York JetsLeanLCLE 12, NYJ 17
Oct 11Las Vegas Raiders vs New England PatriotsNew England -3.5 (−110)LeanWLV 17, NE 45
Oct 11Las Vegas Raiders vs New England PatriotsKirk Cousins Over 229.5 passing yards (−111)LeanWLV 17, NE 45
Oct 11Las Vegas Raiders vs New England PatriotsRomeo Doubs Over 52.5 receiving yards (−111)LeanLLV 17, NE 45
Oct 11Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans SaintsNew Orleans +2.5 (−110)LeanLMIN 23, NO 13
Oct 11Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans SaintsTyler Shough Over 239.5 passing yards (−120)LeanLMIN 23, NO 13
Oct 11Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans SaintsJuwan Johnson Over 42.5 receiving yards (−115)LeanLMIN 23, NO 13
Oct 11New York Giants vs Washington CommandersNew York +3.5 (−102)LeanWNYG 27, WSH 27
Oct 11New York Giants vs Washington CommandersNajee Harris Over 27.5 rushing yards (−102)LeanLNYG 27, WSH 27
Oct 11Packers +1.5 + Jordan Love Under 233.5 pass yds + Tucker Kraft Under 49.5 rec yds3-leg same-game parlay · Chicago Bears @ Green Bay PackersLeanLCHI 7, GB 31
Oct 11Patriots −3.5 + Hunter Henry Over 37.5 rec yds + Romeo Doubs Over 49.5 rec yds3-leg same-game parlay · Las Vegas Raiders @ New England PatriotsLeanLLV 17, NE 45
Oct 11Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville JaguarsPhiladelphia +7.5 (−110)LeanWPHI 17, JAX 19
Oct 11Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville JaguarsTrevor Lawrence Under 225.5 passing yards (−114)LeanLPHI 17, JAX 19
Oct 11Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville JaguarsJalen Hurts Under 185.5 passing yards (−112)LeanLPHI 17, JAX 19
Oct 11Saints +2.5 + Tyler Shough Over 235.5 pass yds + Juwan Johnson Over 42.5 rec yds3-leg same-game parlay · Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans SaintsLeanLMIN 23, NO 13
Oct 11San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle SeahawksSeattle -3 (−118)LeanLSF 32, SEA 29
Oct 11San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle SeahawksJaxon Smith-Njigba Over 94.5 receiving yards (−114)LeanWSF 32, SEA 29
Oct 11San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle SeahawksGeorge Kittle Over 55.5 receiving yards (−110)LeanLSF 32, SEA 29
Oct 11Seahawks −3 + Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 94.5 rec yds + George Kittle Over 54.5 rec yds3-leg same-game parlay · San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle SeahawksLeanLSF 32, SEA 29
Oct 11Titans +7 + Tony Pollard Over 50.5 rush yds + C.J. Stroud Over 239.5 pass yds3-leg same-game parlay · Houston Texans @ Tennessee TitansLeanLHOU 26, TEN 3
Oct 8Buccaneers +8.5 + Bucky Irving Over 51.5 rush yds + Cade Otton Over 27.5 rec yds3-leg same-game parlay · Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas CowboysLeanLTB 24, DAL 16
Oct 8Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas CowboysTampa Bay +8.5 (−108)LeanWTB 24, DAL 16
The write-up
My NFL Week 5 results came in at 6-9, every one a lean with no stake. The Thursday underdog won outright, Sunday split the wrong way, and Monday night went to overtime and away from us. Here’s all of it, starting with the two that came down to the last possession.
Miami lost by seven, and we had six and a half
Dolphins plus six and a half lost to Cincinnati 31-24, by half a point. This was the biggest gap on our board, and I flagged it as the shakiest pick of the week because the gap was past our warning line. It came down to the hook.
Monday night went to overtime
Rams minus three and a half lost 37-34 to Buffalo in overtime. We needed the Rams to win by four. They didn’t win at all. The read on the line move was the smallest edge on our board, and a coin-flip game ended the way coin flips sometimes do.
The wins
Tampa Bay plus eight and a half won outright in Dallas on Thursday, 24-16. Philadelphia plus seven and a half lost by two in London, 19-17, which is the kind of game the points are for. Green Bay plus one and a half beat Chicago 31-7, the pick I called my favorite of the week. New England minus three and a half beat Las Vegas 45-17. The Jets minus two and a half beat Cleveland 17-12. And the Giants plus three and a half covered in a 27-27 tie.
The losses
New Orleans plus two and a half lost to Minnesota 23-13. Indianapolis plus two and a half lost 34-22 in Pittsburgh. Tennessee plus seven and a half managed three points in a 26-3 loss to Houston. The Chargers plus three and a half lost to Denver 23-17. Arizona plus five and a half lost to Detroit 45-21. Seattle minus three lost to San Francisco 32-29. And Atlanta minus three and a half lost 30-23 in overtime to a Baltimore team playing without Lamar Jackson. That was the pick where our injury rule overrode the numbers, and the injury didn’t decide the game.
Parlays
All fourteen same-game parlays missed. Most of them needed the side to cover, and we went 6-9 on sides, so that’s the math more than anything else. Every ticket and every leg is graded on the receipts page.
Where that leaves us
Week 5 was 6-9, all leans, so none of it touches the staked record. Every pick is graded on the receipts page, whether it helps us or not. We track every pick, win or lose. This is analysis and entertainment, not financial advice.
