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I’ll take the Brewers at plus money in Game 3, even with the series moving to Los Angeles. Milwaukee is up two games to none, almost four out of five bets are on the Dodgers tonight, and our numbers give the Brewers a better chance than the price does. Like every baseball pick here until our numbers build a track record, it’s a lean at confidence one.
The Matchup
Milwaukee won the best record in baseball at 103-59 and has backed it up. The Brewers beat Tarik Skubal 2-1 in Game 1 behind Jacob Misiorowski, then knocked out Yoshinobu Yamamoto in a 7-4 win in Game 2. William Contreras homered and drove in three in that one, Brice Turang scored three times, and the bullpen threw five scoreless innings.
The Dodgers won 100 games themselves and still haven’t found their bats in this series. Five runs in two games against this pitching staff is not what a lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts expects. Now they come home needing a win to keep the series from getting away.
First pitch is 8:00 PM ET Wednesday at Dodger Stadium, on FS1.
The Pitching
Los Angeles starts Blake Snell, and his season line looks great: 4-1, a 1.90 ERA and no home runs allowed in nine starts. The problem is how short those starts have gotten. Snell left a September 16 start after one inning, went four innings his next time out, then lasted three and two thirds against Atlanta in the division series with five walks on 90 pitches. He hasn’t finished the fifth since September 11.
Milwaukee goes with Robert Gasser, a lefty who went 5-5 with a 3.87 ERA, 103 strikeouts and a 1.19 WHIP over 109 innings. He gave up one run in four innings at San Diego in his only start this October. He won’t go deep either, so this likely turns into a bullpen game for both sides.
How I See It
Our numbers start from each team’s runs scored and allowed over the full season, swap in the day’s starter, and add a little for home field. They make the Dodgers about a 58% favorite. The price, with the books’ margin taken out, says about 61%. That’s a gap of a little over two and a half points on Milwaukee.
There’s a fair case the other way. Snell’s 1.90 ERA is real, and a desperate home team with this lineup can win any night. But our numbers already give Snell full credit for that ERA, and they still like the Brewers at this price. With the public piling onto Los Angeles, I’ll take the better team at plus money.
Bottom Line
Take the Brewers on the moneyline at . Lean. Our numbers give Milwaukee about a 42% chance, and the price says 39%. Snell’s ERA is the reason it’s only a lean, and his recent pitch counts are the reason I’m on the Brewers.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs. If the Brewers win Game 3, it’s most likely because they make Snell work, wait out his walks and get him out of the game early. Every leg needs the same night, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleMilwaukee wins by making Snell throw pitches and chasing him early.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Wednesday at 12:15 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Bets beyond the moneyline, from either side. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a fair price behind it. These are separate bets from our pick, so size them small.
He hasn’t pitched past the fourth inning in a month, and short starts mean fewer strikeouts.
- Trend3 of 3 under: 1, 3 and 5 strikeouts
- MatchupFive walks on 90 pitches in three and two thirds innings against Atlanta
He has hit lefties hard all season, and he gets one tonight.
- Trend2 of 3: 2, 2 and 0
- Matchup.333 average and .575 slugging against left-handed pitching this season
He has a hit in each of his last three games, and lefties haven’t slowed him down.
- Trend3 of 3: 1, 1 and 1 hits
- Matchup.267 average and .526 slugging against left-handed pitching this season
The Dodgers’ best bat against lefties faces a lefty, and he’s been producing.
- Trend2 of 3: 2, 2 and 1
- Matchup.303 average and .515 slugging against left-handed pitching; Gasser throws left-handed
He hits lefties hard, and he cleared this in two of his last three.
- Trend2 of 3: 4, 2 and 0
- Matchup.293 average and .531 slugging against left-handed pitching this season
Prices checked Wednesday at 12:15 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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