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Commanders vs Giants: Big Blue Wins It in the Rain
TNF · THU NOV 12 · 8:15 PM ET · PRIME VIDEO
Giants −1.5Spread · −115
−115BESTBet at FanDuel →02 · OUR PICK
Under 41.5Total · −115−115BESTBet at FanDuel →Our edge: Washington can't convert a third down when the field is dry, and Thursday night it's raining at MetLife. Our score: Giants 24, Commanders 17.
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Giants −1.5
J.J. McCarthyMcCarthy keeps winning on the road
The Giants are 5-2-1, and J.J. McCarthy started the last two: a 27-21 win in Houston and a 19-11 win in Philadelphia. He hurt his hip against the Eagles and came right back into that game. Our season numbers were built mostly on Jameis Winston’s starts, so I’m riding the board side here, and the board has the Giants too.
Here’s the gap that matters. New York converts 40% of its third downs. Washington converts 31%. One of these offenses stays on the field, and the other one punts in the rain.
Giants40%
Commanders31%
Malik NabersNabers already cooked them once
When these two tied 27-27 in Washington back in October, Malik Nabers caught 11 balls for 121 yards on 20 targets. He leads the Giants with 53 catches for 648 yards, and he went over 100 in four of his last six games.
The Giants also finish drives. They score on 91% of their red-zone trips. Get Nabers loose between the 20s and New York cashes it in.
You're paying −134 or more to skip a point and a half. Lay the short number instead.
Daniels takes off. The last time these two met he ran for 103 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-27 tie. If he decides to run again Thursday, the Giants and the under both get wet in the wrong way.
Take the one and a half. At two and a half you're paying for a point that could matter in a low-scoring game.
−1.5−115Parlays
Giants −1.5Spread−115Under 41.5Total points−115Giants −1.5Spread−115Under 41.5Total points−115
Daniels U34.5 rush ydsPlayer prop−114Malik Nabers anytime TDPlayer prop+165Giants Defense anytime TDPlayer prop+750The book sets the final price. Same-game legs are linked, so it is usually lower than these estimates.
Under 41.5 total points
vs PHIWk 8✓ UNDER
vs LARWk 9✓ UNDER
@ NYGWk 10OVER
@ HOUWk 7OVER@ PHIWk 9✓ UNDER
vs WSHWk 10OVER›The National Weather Service has light rain in East Rutherford Thursday night, a 96% chance, plus a north wind around 12 mph. That’s a wet ball for two offenses that already sputter.
Washington’s last game finished 20-13 against the Rams. Add a soaked field and this one lives in the 30s. Take 41.5 if you can find it; at 41 you’re giving away a push.
U 41.5−115Daniels under 34.5 rushing yards
Jayden DanielsWSH · QBFour carries or fewer in each of his last three gamesDaniels hasn’t topped 25 rushing yards in any of his last three games, and he hasn’t carried it more than four times in any of them. Washington has him throwing now, 35 attempts last week against the Rams. On a slick track, scrambling gets riskier, not easier.
Jayden Daniels: last 5 gamesLINE: U 34.5NYGWk 5 · 9 carOVER
SFWk 6 · 4 car✓ UNDERPHIWk 8 · 2 car✓ UNDERLARWk 9 · 4 car✓ UNDERNYGWk 10 · 10 car✓ UNDER›U 34.5 rush yds−114Bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets
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Giants live spreadIFMAYBEIt's 0-0 or 3-3 at halftimeUnder live total21+. One live bet per trigger. Live odds move fast, so check the price before you bet.
Is McCarthy the real deal in New York, or does Daniels steal one in the rain?
Tell me I'm wrong.
Go Big Blue.