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Dolphins vs Colts: Somebody Has to Win This
WEEK 10 · SUN NOV 15 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS
Colts −2.5Spread · −108
−108BESTBet at BetMGM →02 · OUR PICK
Under 40.5Total · −110
−110BESTBet at FanDuel →Our edge: The Dolphins score 15.8 points a game, and the Colts snap a five-game skid indoors. Nobody mistakes it for a shootout. Our score: Colts 22, Dolphins 18.
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Colts −2.5
CONFIDENCE
Colts −2.5 −108›Our estimate. Not a guarantee.Miami can't score
The Dolphins average 15.8 points a game and have been held under 20 in six of eight. Malik Willis threw for 128 yards and no touchdowns in the 19-9 loss to Detroit, and he has six touchdowns against six picks on the year. Now Willis is on injured reserve, and Kyle McCord takes over as the starter Sunday. McCord hadn’t taken an NFL snap entering the season, and his first start comes on the road.
Miami has won one road game all year, a 28-25 squeaker over the Jets. That’s the whole highlight reel.
Colts20.4
Dolphins15.8
Zach SielerMiami's front just lost its captain
Defensive tackle Zach Sieler ruptured his biceps against Detroit and is done for the season, per ESPN. Without him, a Dolphins defense with 12 sacks and seven takeaways gets thinner in the middle. Coach Jeff Hafley also called out his team for 11 penalties in that loss. A team bleeding yards on flags with its best interior lineman gone is exactly who you want to face when you need a win.
Jonathan TaylorFeed Jonathan Taylor
Taylor has 656 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, and the Colts come away with points on 87.5% of their red-zone trips. When Taylor ran for 95 yards and two scores against Washington, Indy put up 30. The Colts shipped receiver Keenan Allen to San Francisco on Tuesday, so the passing game got thinner. With Sieler gone from Miami’s front, this is a day to hand Taylor the ball and get out of the way.
−200 is a steep price for a team riding a five-game skid. Take the short spread.
Daniel Jones and the turnovers. The Colts are minus-11 in turnover margin and Jones has thrown 10 interceptions. If he hands Miami two short fields, that five-game skid becomes six.
The line has moved to −3.5 and −4 since we posted, right on top of our number, so there's no cushion left at those prices.
−2.5−108Parlays
Colts −2.5Spread−108Under 40.5Total points−108Colts Defense anytime TDPlayer prop+450Under 40.5Total points−110The book sets the final price. Same-game legs are linked, so it is usually lower than these estimates.
Under 40.5 total points
@ NYJWk 7OVER
vs NEWk 8OVER
vs DETWk 9✓ UNDER
@ MINWk 7✓ UNDER
@ JAXWk 8OVER
vs DALWk 9OVER›Our numbers land on Colts 22, Dolphins 18. That’s 40. Miami can’t crack 20, and the Colts throw for just 5.7 yards a pass. It’s indoors, but a dome doesn’t fix a bad offense. Under 40.5.
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Colts live spreadIFWAITINGMAYBEIt's 10-10 or lower at halftimeUnder live total21+. Live odds move fast. Check the price before you bet. SlateLines earns a commission from sportsbook links.
Who wins the Ugly Bowl?
Tell me I'm wrong.
For the Shoe.