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Drake Maye has thrown 10 touchdowns and one interception in his last three games, and New England won all three. Now the Patriots get a field goal at Soldier Field against a Bears defense playing without Montez Sweat. Give me the Pats and the points.
The Matchup
- New England is rolling. The Patriots are 4-2 and have won three straight: 29-26 in Buffalo, 45-17 over Las Vegas and 26-19 over the Jets. Maye threw for 878 yards in those three games.
- Caleb is back. Chicago is 4-2 too, and Caleb Williams went 30 of 36 for 305 yards in Sunday’s 31-23 win in Atlanta after missing three games with a hamstring. The Bears went 2-1 without him.
- Chicago’s pass rush is thin. Montez Sweat is suspended for two games, Dayo Odeyingbo is on injured reserve, linebacker T.J. Edwards is doubtful and Jack Sanborn (concussion) is out. Kyler Gordon did have three sacks Sunday.
- New England’s corners are thinner. Carlton Davis III (neck), Karon Prunty and Channing Canada are out, and safeties Kevin Byard and Craig Woodson are questionable. A.J. Brown has no injury designation after missing four games with an ankle injury.
- Weather and kickoff. Partly cloudy, 58 degrees, wind 5 mph (NWS hourly, checked Wednesday). 8:15 PM ET Thursday at Soldier Field, on Prime Video.
The Number
Take the margin out and the market makes Chicago about a 58% favorite. That’s a lot for a matchup of two 4-2 teams, with the home side missing its best pass rusher. Three is the most common final margin in football, so I want it on my side.
The honest case against: Williams just carved up Atlanta, and New England is down three corners. If the Bears can throw whenever they want, the points won’t save us. It’s a Game Pick, a lean, and like every pick we post, it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
In-Game Bets
- If Maye is getting sacked early. Leave it. Chicago’s rush has been streaky, and one hot quarter doesn’t change the matchup.
- If Chicago leads by seven at halftime. Don’t chase the Bears live. Maye has led three straight wins.
- If Byard and Woodson both sit. That’s the Bears’ best case. Don’t add to the lean.
Bottom Line
Take the Patriots plus three at . Lean. Maye is hot, Chicago’s pass rush isn’t, and a field goal is a lot of room. Pats.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs. If New England covers, it’s most likely because Maye has time against a Bears front missing Sweat, and Hunter Henry works the middle against a thin linebacker room. Every leg needs the same night, so this is one position, not three bets.
The angleMaye has time against a Bears front missing Sweat, and Henry works the middle.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Five bets beyond the spread, from either side of the ball. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a real price behind it. These are Game Pick props, separate bets from our pick, so keep them small.
He’s been Maye’s safety valve, and Chicago is short at linebacker.
- Trend3 of 3: 62, 44 and 48 yards
- MatchupT.J. Edwards is doubtful and Jack Sanborn is out
He’s scored in back-to-back games, at better than 2 to 1.
- TrendScored in his last 2 games
- MatchupChicago’s linebackers are banged up, and Henry lives in the middle
Ten touchdowns in three games, against a pass rush missing two starters.
- Trend2 of 3: 269, 374 and 235 yards
- MatchupMontez Sweat is suspended and Dayo Odeyingbo is on injured reserve
He’s scoring touchdowns, but the yards haven’t been there, and he’s splitting carries.
- TrendUnder in 3 of 3: 58, 43 and 44 yards
- MatchupNew England allows 91.8 rushing yards a game, ninth fewest; Roschon Johnson had 13 carries Sunday
He caught all eight targets for 95 yards Sunday, and New England is down three corners.
- Trend2 of 3: 63, 47 and 95 yards
- MatchupCarlton Davis III, Karon Prunty and Channing Canada are out
Prices checked Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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