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Steelers vs Bengals: Burrow Gets His Revenge
SNF · SUN NOV 15 · 8:20 PM ET · NBC
Bengals −3.5Spread · −110
−110Bet at FanDuel →02 · OUR PICK
Under 49.5Total · −110
−110BESTBet at Fanatics →Our edge: Pittsburgh stole the first one 30-27, and Joe Burrow has dropped 31 or more in four straight games. Sunday night he pays the Steelers back. Our score: Bengals 27, Steelers 22.
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Bengals −3.5
CONFIDENCE
Bengals −3.5 −110›Our estimate. Not a guarantee.
Joe BurrowFour straight games of 31 or more
Cincinnati put up 31 in Miami, 35 in Baltimore, 43 against Tennessee and 34 in Atlanta. Burrow has 23 touchdown passes against six picks, and he has run one in himself in each of the last two weeks. Last Sunday he went 24 of 29 for 271 and three scores. That’s a man playing angry.
The real killer is third down. The Bengals convert 54% of them, and that keeps Pittsburgh’s pass rush standing on the sideline with its helmets off.
Bengals54%
Steelers38%Pittsburgh's 6-2 is thinner than it looks
Both teams are 6-2, but they didn’t get there the same way. Cincinnati is outscoring people by eight a game. Pittsburgh is at plus-4.5, and the Steelers scored three points in New England. Aaron Rodgers has started every game, and his last one was 13 of 25 for 172 with no touchdowns, even in a 27-6 win over Cleveland.
Pittsburgh is coming off a bye, which helps. But a rested Rodgers still has to keep pace with an offense that scores 30 a game.
At −184 or worse you're paying a lot to skip a hook. We have Cincinnati by five, so lay the 3.5.
A rested Steelers defense takes the ball away. Pittsburgh has 13 takeaways and 26 sacks, and it gets an extra week to prep. Burrow threw three picks against Tennessee two weeks ago. Give this defense a couple of short fields and the Steelers sweep the season series.
−3.5−110Parlays
Bengals −3.5Spread−110Under 49.5Total points−110Bengals −3.5Spread−110Under 49.5Total points−110
Warren O69.5 rush ydsPlayer prop+116Joe Burrow anytime TDPlayer prop+700Tee Higgins anytime TDPlayer prop+110The book sets the final price. Same-game legs are linked, so it is usually lower than these estimates.
Under 49.5 total points
@ TBWk 6✓ UNDER
@ NOWk 7✓ UNDER
vs CLEWk 8✓ UNDER
@ BALWk 7✓ UNDER
vs TENWk 8OVER
@ ATLWk 9OVER›Pittsburgh’s defense allows 18 points a game, and five of the Steelers’ eight games stayed under this number. They want to run the ball and shorten the night. The National Weather Service has Cincinnati dropping to about 31 degrees Sunday night, with almost no wind.
Our numbers land at 49. Cold air plus a Steelers team that wants to grind means fewer possessions. Give me the under.
U 49.5−110Warren over 69.5 rushing yards
Jaylen WarrenPIT · RBOver 69.5 in four of his last five gamesThe safe number is 64.5. We’re going bigger and getting plus money for it. Warren has 704 rushing yards at 4.9 a carry, and he went over 69.5 in four of his last five games. He ran for 127 against these Bengals in Week 3 and 143 against Cleveland last time out. Pittsburgh’s whole plan Sunday night is to keep Burrow on the bench, and that means Warren gets fed.
Jaylen Warren: last 5 gamesLINE: O 69.5CLEWk 4 · 17 car✓ OVER
INDWk 5 · 15 car✓ OVERTBWk 6 · 14 carUNDERNOWk 7 · 18 car✓ OVERCLEWk 8 · 17 car✓ OVER›O 69.5 rush yds+116Bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets
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Bengals live spreadIFWAITINGMAYBEIt's 10-10 or lower at halftimeUnder live total21+. Live odds move fast. Check the price before you bet. SlateLines earns a commission from sportsbook links.
Was Week 3 a fluke, or does Pittsburgh own Cincinnati again?
Tell me I'm wrong.
Who Dey.