VS
Texas vs LSU: The Horns Win in Death Valley
COLLEGE FOOTBALL · WEEK 11 · UPSET PICK · SAT NOV 14 · 7:30 PM ET · ABC
Our edge: Texas is 4-0 against ranked teams this year, and one of those wins came against then-No. 1 Ohio State. Saturday night the Horns go into Tiger Stadium and win it straight up. Our score: Texas 27, LSU 23.
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Texas ML
Texas ML +146›Our estimate. Not a guarantee.Texas wins the big ones
Texas wins it outright, and the résumé says this is what the Horns do. They beat Ohio State 24-23 when the Buckeyes were No. 1, won 20-17 at Tennessee, beat Ole Miss 34-27 and went to Missouri last Saturday and won 34-20. Both losses came by three points, to Oklahoma and Florida.
Arch Manning is rolling. He went 16 of 20 for 220 yards and three touchdowns against Mississippi State, then 28 of 38 for 297 and three more at Missouri. That’s six touchdown passes and zero interceptions in two weeks.
Texas6
LSU3LSU's run game went missing
LSU lost 31-13 at home to Alabama last Saturday. Sam Leavitt threw for 380 yards and still didn’t throw a touchdown, because the Tigers ran 33 times for 77 yards and went 0 for 4 on fourth down. When LSU can’t run, Leavitt ends up throwing 47 times and the Tigers score 13.
Now LSU gets a Texas defense that gives up 17.4 points and 100.3 rushing yards a game. Colin Simmons has 10.5 sacks. At Missouri, the Horns held the Tigers to 84 rushing yards and 3 of 16 on third down. Our numbers have LSU by about two at home. That’s a coin flip, and in a coin flip I’m taking the better quarterback right now. Hook ’em.
We have this game at LSU by about two, so +150 for the outright win is the bold call. If you want the cushion instead, the safe number is +4.
LSU gets home. The Tigers have 36 sacks and Princewill Umanmielen has 8.5 of them. Texas has allowed 27 sacks and runs for 3.5 yards a carry, and it ran 31 times for 76 yards at Missouri. If the Horns fall behind the sticks at night in Baton Rouge, Arch is running for his life.
The safe number is +4. We're not taking the cushion. We're calling Texas to win outright, so the pick is the moneyline at +150.
Texas ML+146Parlays
Texas MLMoneyline+150
Indiana −10.5Alt spread+110
Georgia −20.5Alt spread+144This is the Crazy Bet. For fun, small money. All of our bold calls on one ticket comes out to roughly +1200 at the prices listed. Your book's parlay price may differ.
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Texas live MLIFMAYBETexas scores first and LSU's run game is under 30 yards after the first quarterTexas live spread21+. One live bet per trigger. Live odds move fast, so check the price before you bet.
Texas wins in Death Valley. Who you got? Tell me I'm wrong.
Tell me I'm wrong.