VS
USC vs Indiana: Hoosiers by 11 or More
COLLEGE FOOTBALL · WEEK 11 · PICK · SAT NOV 14 · 3:30 PM ET · CBS
Our edge: Indiana hasn't given up more than 23 points in a game all season, and USC ran for minus-18 yards in its last road game. The Hoosiers win this one going away. Our score: Indiana 27, USC 16.
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Indiana −10.5
Indiana −10.5 +110›Our estimate. Not a guarantee.Nobody scores on this defense
Indiana gives up 12.4 points and 75.6 rushing yards a game, and nobody has scored more than 23 on the Hoosiers all year. They have 32 sacks, and Tobi Osunsanmi has 10 of them. At Michigan, Indiana held the Wolverines to 57 rushing yards on 42 carries. Against Minnesota on Oct. 31, it allowed 215 total yards and 3 of 15 on third down.
Indiana has also been flagged only 38 times all season. This defense doesn’t hand you anything, and it has had two weeks to get ready for USC.
Indiana12.4
USC24.2USC on the road is a different team
Jayden Maiava has 2,524 passing yards with 20 touchdowns and five picks, and at home he’s dangerous. The last Big Ten road trip was a disaster. At Wisconsin on Oct. 24, USC ran 25 times for minus-18 yards, Maiava went 31 of 50 for 257 with two interceptions, and the Trojans lost 24-7.
On the other side, Josh Hoover has started all nine games for Indiana, with 19 touchdown passes and two picks. He hurt his right shoulder against Ohio State on Oct. 17, and Grant Wilson came in at halftime against Minnesota and went 9 of 17 for 156 yards and a touchdown. Curt Cignetti hasn’t said who starts. I don’t care, because this pick lives on the defense. Indiana also runs for 186.2 yards a game at 5.3 a carry, and USC gives up 124.8 on the ground. Our numbers have Indiana by 10. I’m going one more point and taking the plus money. Go Hoosiers.
You're paying −320 or worse just to pick the winner. We're going bigger: Indiana by 11 or more at +110.
Indiana's offense stays stuck. The Hoosiers have scored 23 or fewer in four straight games, and two of those needed overtime. And USC beat Ohio State 30-18, the same team that beat Indiana in Bloomington. If Maiava gets clean pockets, this is a one-score game in the fourth quarter.
The safe number is −8.5. We're calling Indiana by 11 or more, so we're laying ten and a half and getting +110 for it.
−10.5+110Parlays
Indiana −10.5Alt spread+110
Georgia −20.5 ALT LINEAlt spread+144
Texas MLMoneyline+150This is the Crazy Bet. For fun, small money. All of our bold calls on one ticket comes out to roughly +1200 at the prices listed. Your book's parlay price may differ.
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Indiana live spreadIFMAYBEUSC has under 20 rushing yards at halftimeIndiana second-half spread21+. One live bet per trigger. Live odds move fast, so check the price before you bet.
Can USC score on this Indiana defense? Who you got? Tell me I'm wrong.
Tell me I'm wrong.