The Knicks are the champs. Let that sit for a second. First title since 1973, Jalen Brunson dropped 45 in the clincher, and they took out the Spurs in five. Now everybody else spent the summer trying to catch up. LeBron is a Sixer. Giannis is in Miami. Kawhi is back in Toronto. Jaylen Brown left Boston for Philly.
Opening night is October 20. Futures prices are as soft as they will be all year, so here is where I’m leaning before the ball goes up.
The Title Board
These prices update on their own twice a day. A +300 means a $100 bet pays $300 profit.
| Team | Title Odds | Book | Last Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | +390 | FanDuel | 64-18, lost West Finals |
| San Antonio Spurs | +280 | FanDuel | 62-20, lost Finals |
| New York Knicks | +950 | FanDuel | 53-29, won title |
| Philadelphia 76ers | +900 | FanDuel | 45-37, lost second round |
| Boston Celtics | +1100 | FanDuel | 56-26, lost first round |
| Toronto Raptors | +1700 | FanDuel | 46-36, lost first round |
| Detroit Pistons | +2200 | FanDuel | 60-22, lost second round |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +1700 | FanDuel | 49-33, lost second round |
Prices pulled Oct 28 at 11:25 am EDT · odds move, confirm at the book before betting.
21+ · Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
San Antonio Spurs (+280)
Victor Wembanyama is the best player in the sport right now and I don’t think it’s close. He won Defensive Player of the Year, then went out and averaged 27.3 points, 10.9 boards and 2.7 blocks against the Thunder in the West Finals, with 41 in Game 1. The Spurs won that series in seven. They bring back basically the whole team, add Tobias Harris, and their best guy is 22. The Finals loss stings, but young teams lose one before they win one.
Oklahoma City Thunder (+390)
Shai has two straight MVPs and the Thunder won 64 games. I get why they’re at the top of the board. But Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins are all gone, and that was the stuff that made them a nightmare for 48 minutes. Jalen Williams spent big chunks of last year fighting his hamstring. When it was these two in a Game 7, the Spurs won. I trust the team that beat them.
New York Knicks (+950)
Here’s what nobody wants to say out loud. The defending champs are running it back with the same starting five, and the board still has them behind two West teams. Last spring they swept Philly and swept Cleveland on the way to the Finals. The East got louder this summer, sure. Louder isn’t better. The only cloud is Karl-Anthony Towns’ extension still hanging out there, and that’s a money story, not a basketball one.
Philadelphia 76ers (+900)
On paper this is the most fun team in the league. LeBron, Jaylen Brown, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe. In real life, LeBron turns 42 in December and Embiid has been the league’s biggest health question for a decade. Add a brand new group learning each other on the fly, and you have a team that looks great in October and gets nervous in May. Remember, the Knicks swept Embiid and Maxey last spring. I’ll watch, I won’t bet.
Boston Celtics (+1100)
Boston was the two seed and up 3-1 on Philly in the first round. Then they dropped three straight, including Game 7 at home with Jayson Tatum sitting out on a sore left knee. That’s a year after his Achilles. Then they shipped Jaylen Brown to the team that just knocked them out. Joe Mazzulla won Coach of the Year for squeezing 56 wins out of that group. Squeezing more out of less is a tough ask twice in a row. Pass.
Detroit Pistons (+2200)
The Pistons won 60 games and the one seed. Then they lost a Game 7 to Cleveland in the second round and everybody forgot about them. Cade Cunningham put up 23.9 points and 9.9 assists and finished fifth in MVP voting. This is a young team that just had its first real playoff heartbreak, which is usually step one. The worry is Jalen Duren’s contract fight, so keep an eye on that before you bet.
The Noisy Middle
Toronto with Kawhi, Minnesota with LaMelo Ball next to Anthony Edwards, Miami with Giannis next to Bam. All three made big swings and all three are fun. None of them are at a number I like more than what’s below.
My Futures Leans
Our first NBA season. These are leans while we build the record. Bet small, and I’ll track every one of these in the open all year.
Lean: Spurs to win the title (+280). Best player, young roster, already beat the other favorite in a Game 7. If I can only make one bet, it’s this one.
Lean: Knicks to win the title (+950). The champs with the whole starting five back, priced like a team that got lucky. The East is a fight, but they just went 8-0 in the last two East rounds.
Lean: Pistons to win the title (+2200). A 60-win team this far down the board. Small bet, big upside, and they have the best player in the East nobody talks about.
Lean: Cade Cunningham for MVP. Fifth last year on a 60-win team, still getting better, and he plays in a weaker conference where wins come easier. If the Pistons take the one seed again, voters will look his way. He’s well down the MVP board right now, which is the whole point.
On Wembanyama for MVP: he’s the right favorite. The price is just too short in October for me to get excited. I’ll revisit if it drifts.
What’s Next
Opening night picks for Celtics at Pistons, 76ers at Knicks and Thunder at Spurs drop before tip on October 20. After that it’s best bets and props every game day, all season. Check back every morning.
Bet the Spurs at +280 · FanDuel Bet the Knicks at +950 · FanDuel
21+ · 1-800-GAMBLER