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Rays Up. Tampa Bay won the last two in Cleveland to take a 3-2 lead, and now the series comes back to the Trop with Freddy Peralta on the mound and Cleveland going to its bullpen from the first pitch. One more win and the Rays are in the World Series. I’m on Tampa Bay to close it out.
The Matchup
- The Rays flipped the series. Cleveland won Game 1, 7-3, and Game 3, 3-2. Tampa Bay won Game 2, 3-1, then won 7-3 on Saturday and 3-1 on Sunday in Cleveland after Friday’s rainout.
- The bats woke up. After scoring eight runs in the first three games, the Rays scored ten in the two in Cleveland. Yandy Díaz went 5 for 10 with a homer, and Jonathan Aranda went 5 for 9 after starting the series 0 for 10.
- The full season says Tampa Bay. The Rays went 98-64 and 55-26 at home, and outscored teams by 86 runs. Cleveland went 85-77, plus 11.
- First pitch. 8:08 PM ET Monday at Tropicana Field, on TBS and truTV.
The Pitching
Freddy Peralta has been a different pitcher since the Rays got him. He had a 3.25 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 10 starts for Tampa Bay, and he’s allowed one earned run in 11 and a third innings this postseason. In Game 2 he threw six scoreless innings at the Guardians and struck out six.
Cleveland is opening with reliever Shawn Armstrong, which means a bullpen game. Armstrong hasn’t allowed an earned run in seven and two-thirds playoff innings, and this bullpen has been good all series. But a bullpen game in an elimination game means a lot of arms, and the Rays just scored ten runs in two days against this staff.
The Number
Our numbers start from each team’s runs scored and allowed over the full season, swap in the day’s pitching, and add a little for home field. They make Tampa Bay a little better than the price, which has the Rays at about 58% once the margin comes out. It’s a short gap, but it’s on the better team, at home, with the better starter.
The honest case against: Cleveland’s bullpen has been the best unit in this series, and a team facing elimination can steal one. It’s a Game Pick, a lean, and like every pick we post, it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
Bottom Line
Take the Rays on the moneyline at . Lean. Home field, the hottest starter in the series and a Cleveland bullpen game. Rays to close it out.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in two legs, both at the book that posts them. If the Rays close it out, it’s most likely because Peralta gets deep enough to rack up a few strikeouts and keeps Cleveland’s bats quiet. Every leg needs the same night, so this is one position, not two bets.
The anglePeralta deals at the Trop and the Rays punch their ticket.
Build it at Fanatics →Fanatics prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Monday at 12:00 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Bets beyond the moneyline, from either side. Only a few props are posted so far, so these are the two with a real trend behind them. They’re Game Pick props, separate bets from our pick, so keep them small.
After an 0-for-8 start to the series, he’s found some hits at the bottom of the order.
- Trend2 of his last 3: 1, 1 and 0 hits
- MatchupHe’s 2 for 9 since that 0-for-8 start
He struck out six Guardians in Game 2, and the Rays will let him work if he’s dealing.
- Trend2 of his last 3 starts: 4, 3 and 6 strikeouts
- MatchupThe risk: Cleveland struck out less than all but four teams this season. It’s a pricey number, so keep it small
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