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I like USC plus one and a half in Happy Valley, but I’m not pounding the table. The numbers make the Trojans a hair better even on the road, and Penn State has played its two worst games of the year in the last two weeks. The market went the other way, and USC can’t cover anything, so it’s a lean.
The Matchup
- Penn State has come apart in Big Ten play. The Nittany Lions are 3-2 and 0-2 in the conference in Matt Campbell’s first season. They blew a 17-0 lead at home in a 24-20 loss to Wisconsin, then got outgained by 215 yards in a 34-13 loss at Northwestern. That’s 33 points in two Big Ten games.
- USC wins, but it doesn’t cover. The Trojans are 5-1 and No. 19, and they’ve covered the spread once in six games. Jayden Maiava has 1,744 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and three interceptions, and the offense throws for over 300 yards a game. The only loss was 41-27 to Oregon, and last week they got past Washington 25-21.
- Penn State’s run defense is the soft spot. The pass defense has been good, but the Lions rank near the bottom of the country at stopping the run, and USC’s King Miller has 493 yards. Penn State’s offense is thin too: Rocco Becht has 10 touchdowns and three interceptions, and his top receiver, Koby Howard, will miss a third straight game.
- USC is banged up up front. Wide receiver Corey Simms and offensive lineman Kilian O’Connor are out for the season, and lineman Hayden Treter, safety Kendarius Reddick and linebacker Taylor Johnson all missed the Washington game. The last time these two met, Penn State won 33-30 in overtime at the Coliseum in 2024. Kickoff is 7:30 PM ET on NBC.
The Number
The current ratings, updated after Week 5, have USC three points better than Penn State on a neutral field. Give Penn State two and a half for playing at home and that’s USC by a half point. The board has Penn State by one and a half. That’s two points on the Trojans, a real disagreement, but a small one.
The line went the wrong way. USC opened as the favorite and it flipped to Penn State -1.5. More tickets are on USC, but most of the money is on Penn State, and that money moved the number. When the bigger bettors take the other side, I keep it a lean.
So why take USC at all? Because the ratings already know about USC’s injuries, and Penn State has looked worse every week. A team that scored 13 points at Northwestern is going to have to win a shootout with a 300-yard passing offense. USC plus one and a half, lean, confidence one.
In-Game Bets
- If Penn State leads by a touchdown at halftime. Hold. Penn State led Wisconsin 17-0 and lost, and this offense has not closed out a good team yet.
- If USC is running for five yards a carry in the first half. That’s the matchup I’m counting on. Look at USC on the live moneyline.
- If Becht throws an early interception. Look at USC live. Penn State’s offense hasn’t come back from anything in Big Ten play.
Bottom Line
Take USC plus one and a half at -110 at FanDuel. Lean. The numbers make USC a slight favorite in State College, and the board has the Trojans getting a point and a half. Penn State has lost two straight in the conference and scored 33 points doing it. The line flipping toward Penn State and USC’s one cover in six games keep it a lean at confidence one.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in two legs, both posted at the book on the card. If USC covers, it’s most likely because Maiava and the passing game put up points. USC has gone over the total in four of its six games. Both legs need the same night, so this is one position, not two bets. Size it small.
The angleUSC covers by winning a shootout behind its passing game.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Wednesday at 5:00 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket.
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