SlateLines (Tally LLC) earns a commission when you sign up through our links. That never affects our analysis.
Lincoln Riley has never made the playoff at USC, and this schedule will not fix it. Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana are all on it. I am on the Under at eight and a half.
Key Storylines
- The defense is the whole story. SP+, the ESPN power rating this series leans on, projects USC sixth in offense and twenty-eighth in defense, the widest split of any ranked Big Ten team. Last season the defense held up until it met good opponents and then it did not, which is most of how a 9-3 regular season became four losses on the year.
- Gary Patterson is the fix and he is new. USC hired the former TCU head coach to run the defense after D’Anton Lynn left for Penn State. Patterson has built elite defenses before. He has not built this one yet, and USC plays Oregon in September and Ohio State in October.
- They lost a five-star quarterback they did not want to lose. Husan Longstreet entered the portal rather than wait behind Jayden Maiava, who returns as the starter. Maiava is the reason USC could afford it. The depth behind him is now a freshman from the nation’s top-ranked recruiting class.
- The best recruiting class in the country just walked onto campus. USC signed the No. 1 class of 2026, three five-stars and nineteen four-stars, and the headliner plays exactly where this team is weakest: edge rusher Luke Wafle, whom Rivals rated the No. 1 player in the entire class, could start from day one. Five-star tight end Mark Bowman is expected to start too. If Patterson’s defense comes together faster than I expect, the freshmen will be why. I am not betting on freshmen fixing a defense by October.
- The portal traffic was quiet in both directions. Nine transfers came in, five of them on defense: receiver Terrell Anderson from NC State, cornerback Jontez Williams from Iowa State, linebacker Deven Bryant from Washington and defensive tackle Alex VanSumeren from Michigan State. Defensive tackle Devan Thompkins left for Alabama. This is a roster being maintained rather than rebuilt, which is fine if the expectations were lower.
- The offensive line is why the Over is live. All five starters return: Elijah Paige, Tobias Raymond, Kilian O’Connor, Alani Noa and Justin Tauanuu. They allowed 15 sacks last season, 12th in the country. That is the continuity a new defensive coordinator would love to borrow. If the defense holds even a little, this line is how nine wins happens. I am betting it does not hold.
- Special teams is settled. Ryon Sayeri is back after setting USC’s single-season record with 21 field goals on 25 tries and going 48 for 48 on extra points. Redshirt freshman William Weisberg is the likeliest punter. One fewer thing to worry about in a close game at Penn State.
Win Total Analysis
The number is 8.5, with the Under at -135 and the Over at +110.
SP+ has USC twelfth overall at 17.7, which sounds like a comfortable Over until you split it. The offense projects sixth. The defense projects twenty-eighth. Teams with that shape beat who they should and lose to everyone above them, and this schedule is full of everyone above them.
It also projects 7.8 wins from this slate. Adjusted for the rating’s market bias, that is about 7.95 against a line of 8.5, half a win under the number. The books agree, which is why the Under costs -135. I think they are right and still a touch light.
Nine wins means finding four from Oregon, Washington, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA, after banking San Jose State, Fresno State, Louisiana, Maryland and Rutgers. The Under needs USC to lose four of twelve. Four of seven is not unreasonable. It is not comfortable either, not with the twenty-eighth defense in the country and a coordinator installing a new system while Ohio State and Oregon both show up inside eight weeks.
Returning production is a real counterweight at 65 percent, thirteenth nationally, and Maiava is a legitimate quarterback. That is why this is a standard play rather than more.
Take the Under at -135.
Big Ten Picture
BetMGM prices USC at +1500 to win the Big Ten and +3500 to win the national championship. The playoff market is +240 to make it and -300 to miss. Those are the numbers of a team the market likes without believing in.
USC hosts Oregon and Ohio State, the two teams ranked above it in the preseason polls, and travels to Penn State and Indiana. Four games against the top of the conference, two of them on the road. The Trojans get the better half of that draw and it still looks heavy.
Best Futures Bets
- Under 8.5 wins (-135): The play. Nine wins out of this schedule, with the twenty-eighth defense in the country and a coordinator in his first year running it, is a genuine ask. Laying -135 to doubt it is a fair price.
- To miss the playoff (-300): The same opinion in a worse market. Riley has not reached the field once in four tries here and a twelve-team bracket usually takes ten wins, so the read is consistent. I am not recommending you lay three to one for it when the win total says the same thing at -135.
- Big Ten winner (+1500): Pass. USC would have to beat Oregon and Ohio State at the Coliseum and win in Happy Valley.
Schedule Landmines
Weeks 1-4: USC opens in Week 0 on August 29 against San Jose State, then Fresno State and Louisiana at the Coliseum before a trip to Rutgers. Four games the Trojans are supposed to win, and any slip here ends the playoff conversation before October.
Weeks 5-7: This is the stretch that decides the season. Oregon visits on September 26, Washington the following week, then USC goes to Penn State on October 10. Three straight against teams with playoff ambitions, and the new defense will have had one month to become itself.
Weeks 9-10: After the bye, a road trip to Wisconsin and then Ohio State comes to the Coliseum on October 31. The Buckeyes are the preseason number one. Madison in late October is the sort of game a playoff team is not supposed to drop and often does.
Weeks 12-14: A November trip to Indiana against the defending champion, Maryland at home, then the UCLA rivalry on the road to close. If USC arrives in Bloomington with three losses, this ticket is already most of the way home.
Bottom Line
Sixth-best offense, twenty-eighth-best defense, a projection under the number, and a schedule with Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana on it. A new coordinator does not fix that by September. Take the Under at -135.
21+ · Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER