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Drake Maye just hung 374 and four touchdowns on the Raiders, and now the Jets come to Foxborough. Our number has the Pats by ten. I’m laying the seven and a half.
The Matchup
- Maye is heating up. After throwing six interceptions in the first three games, Drake Maye has gone for 269 and three touchdowns at Buffalo and 374 and four in a 45-17 win over Las Vegas. New England is 3-2.
- The Jets win ugly or not at all. New York is 2-3 and hasn’t scored more than 24 in any game. The wins: 23-10 at Tennessee and 17-12 over Cleveland. Breece Hall is out.
- Gang Green’s pass defense is good. The Jets allow 175 net passing yards a game, fourth fewest. That’s the case against a big Maye day.
- Weather and kickoff. Sunny, 51 degrees, wind 5 mph NW (NWS hourly, checked Friday 3:00 AM ET). 1:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium, on CBS.
The Number
Last season’s points scored and allowed were worth about 3.9 wins for the Jets and 12.5 for New England. One point of spread for every win, plus a point and a half for the home team, makes this New England by about ten. The board has New England by seven and a half. That’s 2.6 points of daylight on New England.
The honest case against: the Jets’ pass defense is legit, and seven and a half is a lot in a division game. A.J. Brown is on injured reserve for New England. But the Jets have scored 17 or fewer in three of five. It’s a Featured pick, still a lean like every NFL side we post, and it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
In-Game Bets
- If the Jets stay close into the second half. Hold. Don’t double down.
- If New England leads by 14 at halftime. Leave it.
- If Maye starts hot. Leave it.
Bottom Line
Take the Patriots minus seven and a half at . Lean. Hot quarterback at home against an offense that can’t keep up. Patriots.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs. If the Pats cover, Maye is throwing and Rhamondre Stevenson is part of it as a receiver; he’s caught three passes every week lately. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets.
The angleNew England pulls away with Maye throwing and Stevenson catching it out of the backfield.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Friday at 3:00 AM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Bets beyond the spread, from either side of the ball. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a real price behind it. These are Game Pick props, separate bets from our pick, so keep them small.
Three catches every week for three weeks.
- Trend3 of his last 3: 3, 3 and 3 catches
- MatchupThe Jets take away deep passes, which pushes the ball to the backs
He’s been under 65 yards in every game this year.
- Trend3 of his last 3: 22, 47 and 64 rushing yards
- MatchupThe Jets allow 118 rushing yards a game, but New England shares the carries
He’s over 100 in two of his last three, and the Jets will be throwing.
- Trend2 of his last 3: 107, 27 and 104 receiving yards
- MatchupNew England allows 205.4 net passing yards a game
The Jets’ only real threat has scored three times in five games.
- TrendScored in 2 of his last 3
- MatchupIf New York scores, it’s probably him
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