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Tennessee has scored 58 points in five games. Fifty-eight. I’m laying the touchdown with the Colts at Lucas Oil. It’s basically right on our number, so this one’s about who can’t score.
The Matchup
- The Titans can’t find the end zone. Tennessee is 0-5 and has scored 10, 20, 7, 18 and 3. Cam Ward has thrown three touchdowns all year and hasn’t topped 222 yards.
- The Colts lose shootouts and win the rest. Indianapolis is 2-3: losses to Baltimore (41-23), at Kansas City (33-30) and at Pittsburgh (34-22), wins over Houston (19-17) and at Washington (30-13).
- Indy’s defense leaks. The Colts allow 130.2 rushing yards and 254 net passing yards a game, sixth and fifth most. That’s the risk with laying seven.
- Kickoff. 1:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium, on Fox. Indoors.
The Number
Last season’s points scored and allowed were worth about 3.8 wins for Tennessee and 9.7 for Indianapolis. One point of spread for every win, plus a point and a half for the home team, makes this Indianapolis by about seven and a half. The board has Indianapolis by seven. That’s 0.4 points of daylight on Indianapolis.
That’s a thin gap, the thinnest on the board. The honest case against: Indy’s defense gives up yards, and a backdoor touchdown kills a seven-point spread. But Tennessee hasn’t scored more than 20 in any game. It’s a Featured pick, still a lean like every NFL side we post, and it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
In-Game Bets
- If the Colts lead by 14 at halftime. Leave it.
- If Tennessee scores first. Don’t panic. They’ve scored more than 18 once.
- If it’s 7-7 late in the first half. Hold.
Bottom Line
Take the Colts minus seven at . Lean. The worst offense in football on the road indoors. Thin number, so it’s a lean. Colts.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs, all at the book that posts this spread. If the Colts cover, Daniel Jones probably has a clean day against a defense that can’t get off the field, and the game script hands carries to Seth McGowan late. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets.
The angleIndy controls the game, Jones gets his yards and the backup back finds work late.
Build it at Fanatics →Fanatics prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Friday at 3:00 AM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Bets beyond the spread, from either side of the ball. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a real price behind it. These are Game Pick props, separate bets from our pick, so keep them small.
Two of his last three cleared it, indoors at home.
- Trend2 of his last 3: 235, 143 and 267 passing yards
- MatchupTennessee allows 217.8 net passing yards a game
A low bar he’s cleared in two of his last three.
- Trend2 of his last 3: 14, 31 and 16 rushing yards
- MatchupIf Indy leads late, the clock-killing carries are his
One catch in each of his last three games, and Tennessee’s passing game has gone nowhere.
- Trend3 of his last 3: 1, 1 and 1 catches
- MatchupCam Ward hasn’t thrown for more than 222 yards in any game
His targets have dried up: 14, 5 and 0 yards.
- Trend3 of his last 3: 14, 5 and 0 receiving yards
- MatchupTennessee’s offense has been the worst in the league
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