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Brady Tkachuk walks back into Canadian Tire Centre tonight in a Panthers sweater, with his brother Matthew on the same bench. Sens fans will have plenty to say about that. Florida has won three straight and scored 18 goals doing it. I’m riding the Cats.
The Matchup
- Florida is filling the net. The Panthers won 7-3 in Columbus, 3-2 in overtime over Vancouver and 8-3 over Seattle, and they have 30 goals in nine games.
- The Panthers own the puck. Florida has outshot teams 264-215. Ottawa has been outshot 236-207.
- Brady’s homecoming. All six of his Florida goals came in the last three games: a hat trick in Columbus and another against Vancouver. Matthew has nine assists in those same three games.
- Jersey toss? Brady says any jerseys thrown on the ice tonight go to the local Boys and Girls Club.
- Missing pieces. Aleksander Barkov is out six to eight weeks, Brad Marchand is on injured reserve, and Markstrom is out 10 to 14 days. Ottawa lists Thomas Chabot as out, and William Eklund is out 10 to 12 weeks after ankle surgery.
- Puck drop. 7:30 PM ET at Canadian Tire Centre, on Prime Video.
The Goalies
Jacob Markstrom is out 10 to 14 days, so Akira Schmid is confirmed for Florida, with Cooper Black called up as the backup. Schmid is at 88.2% through three starts.
Linus Ullmark is the likely starter for Ottawa. He’s started four of the last five and sits at 94.5% through seven. That’s the best number in this game by a mile, and the biggest reason this is only a lean.
The Number
Take the margin out and the market has this as a coin flip. Florida is the better team on the shot counts, and it’s playing like it. I’d take the Panthers on the moneyline up to about -140.
The honest case against: Ullmark has been brilliant, and Florida is without its captain and its No. 1 goalie. It’s a Game Pick, a lean, and like every pick we post, it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
Bottom Line
Take the Panthers on the moneyline at . Lean. Brady comes home hot. Cats.
Lines as posted Wednesday at 4:58 PM ET. Schmid is confirmed; Ullmark is the likely starter, so check before puck drop.
Same-Game Parlay
If Florida wins in Ottawa, Brady probably has a say in it. He has six goals in his last three games. Every leg needs the same night, so this is one position, not two bets.
The angleBrady scores in his homecoming and the Cats win it.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Wednesday at 4:58 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Bets beyond the side, from either team. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a real price behind it. These are Game Pick props, separate bets from our pick, so keep them small.
Two hat tricks in his last three games, and a homecoming to finish the story.
- TrendAll six of his Florida goals came in his last three games
- MatchupUllmark is at 94.5%, so this is a price play, not a matchup play
He’s been shooting more every game.
- Trend4, 6 and 7 shots his last three games
- MatchupFlorida has outshot teams 264-215
Florida’s sniper, at 2 to 1.
- TrendScored in 3 of his last 4; 5 goals in 9 games
- MatchupUllmark is at 94.5%, so keep it small
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