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I’m leaning the Rays on the moneyline as the underdog in Game 3. Tampa Bay leads the series 2-0, the Yankees have two runs in 18 innings, and New York is playing without Aaron Judge. At plus money, I’ll take the team that’s been better all series.
The Matchup
- Tampa Bay leads 2-0. One more win sends the Rays to the Championship Series.
- The Yankees have stopped scoring. Two runs in two games, and now they don’t have Judge in the lineup.
- Max Fried is the problem. He’s the best pitcher in this game, and that’s why Tampa Bay is an underdog even with a 2-0 lead.
- First pitch is 8:00 PM ET on TBS at Yankee Stadium. New York faces elimination.
The Pitching
Fried has a 2.80 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, and he gave up one run in six innings to Boston in the Wild Card round. He’s the reason the Yankees are favored. But Tampa Bay has seen him recently. On September 22 the Rays got four runs off him in 6.2 innings in the Bronx.
Tampa Bay starts Nick Martinez, 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA. He won’t miss many bats, but he keeps runners off base, and he gave up two runs over six innings at Yankee Stadium in that same September series. His last start was rough, 2.2 innings and four runs in Philadelphia, so he’s the biggest risk on this side. Against a lineup missing its best hitter, I’ll live with it.
How I See It
My baseball numbers aren’t built yet. They come online for the Championship Series. So this is judgment, and it’s a lean with no stake. At +140 the Rays only need to win about four times in ten. Given how the series has gone and who’s missing for New York, I think they win more often than that. The risk is Fried pitching like an ace and one Yankees swing changing the game. Rays on the moneyline, lean, confidence one.
Bottom Line
Take the Rays on the moneyline at . Lean. Fried is the best arm in the game, and that’s why the Rays are a plus-money underdog. But the Yankees have two runs in two games and no Judge. It’s a judgment call without my numbers behind it yet, so it’s a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
Three legs that tell one story, all posted at the book on the parlay. If the Rays win in New York, it’s most likely because the top of their order gets to Fried early. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleTampa Bay’s top of the order gets on base and scores against Fried, and the Rays close out the series.
Build it at Fanatics →Fanatics prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Wednesday at 12:45 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Three bets beyond the moneyline, from either side. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a fair price behind it. These are separate bets from our pick, so size them small.
He’s had a hit in each of his last three games, one of the few Yankees who has been swinging it.
- Trend3 of 3
- MatchupMartinez pitches to contact and doesn’t strike many hitters out, so Wells should get balls in play
He leads off for Tampa Bay and has cleared this in two of his last three games, including a six.
- Trend2 of 3: 6, 1 and 2
- MatchupFried is a lefty who gets ground balls, and Diaz is at his best spraying singles the other way
He’s cleared this in two of his last three starts, and the miss was a four.
- Trend2 of 3: 6, 4 and 6 (the four came against Tampa Bay)
- MatchupWith the season on the line, the Yankees will ride him as long as he’s effective
Prices checked Wednesday at 12:45 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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