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I’m leaning the Dodgers on the moneyline in Game 4. Los Angeles leads the series 2-1 and has Tyler Glasnow on the mound, and he’s pitching as well as anyone in baseball right now. Atlanta has to win to force a Game 5.
The Matchup
- Los Angeles leads 2-1. One more win and the Dodgers move on to the Championship Series.
- Glasnow is rolling. He’s struck out 7, 10 and 11 in his last three starts.
- Atlanta is at home with its back to the wall. The Braves have the crowd and nothing to save for tomorrow, and that’s the main reason this stays a lean.
- First pitch is 6:00 PM ET on FS1 at Truist Park.
The Pitching
Glasnow is the reason I’m on this side. When he’s healthy and getting ahead, his stuff overwhelms lineups, and his last three starts have looked exactly like that. Double-digit strikeouts in two of them.
Atlanta goes with Tyler Mahle, who has been steady and efficient. He’s gotten 18, 15 and 21 outs in his last three starts, so he can work deep into a game and keep the Braves’ bullpen rested. If Atlanta wins this, it’s probably because Mahle matches Glasnow inning for inning and the Braves steal a run or two late.
How I See It
My baseball numbers aren’t built yet. They come online for the Championship Series. So this is judgment, and it’s a lean with no stake. At this price the Dodgers have to win about three times in five. With Glasnow pitching like this and the better lineup top to bottom, I think that’s fair or a little better. The risk is a road playoff game against a team with nothing left to lose. Dodgers on the moneyline, lean, confidence one.
Bottom Line
Take the Dodgers on the moneyline at . Lean. Glasnow is the best arm in this game, and the Dodgers have the deeper lineup and a series lead. It’s a judgment call without my numbers behind it yet, so it’s a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
Three legs that tell one story, all posted at the book on the card. If the Dodgers close it out, it’s most likely Glasnow dominating and the top of the order doing damage. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleGlasnow piles up strikeouts, Freeman produces at the top of the order, and the Dodgers close out the series.
Build it at Fanatics →Fanatics prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Wednesday at 12:45 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Three bets beyond the moneyline, from either side. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a fair price behind it. These are separate bets from our pick, so size them small.
He’s cleared this in all three of his last starts, with double digits in two of them.
- Trend3 of 3: 7, 10 and 11
- MatchupHe gets a Braves lineup that has to swing aggressively with the season on the line
He’s cleared this in each of his last three games and hits in the middle of everything for Los Angeles.
- Trend3 of 3: 2, 4 and 3
- MatchupMahle pitches to contact, and Freeman is the kind of hitter who puts the ball in play hard
He’s gotten through at least five innings in each of his last three starts.
- Trend3 of 3: 18, 15 and 21
- MatchupAtlanta needs length from him to keep its bullpen fresh, so the leash should be long unless he gets hit hard
Prices checked Wednesday at 12:45 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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