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My Yankees vs Rays pick is Tampa at home against Cam Schlittler. He’s the best pitcher in this series and I know it. But the Yankees got one hit on Saturday, Aaron Judge isn’t on the roster, and Freddy Peralta just had the best month of any pitcher in the American League.
The Yankees vs Rays Matchup
- New York got one hit in Game 1. Drew Rasmussen struck out 10 and retired 15 straight in a 1-0 Rays win. Austin Wells broke up the no-hitter with a double with two outs in the eighth, then got thrown out trying for third. Jonathan Aranda’s solo homer off Gerrit Cole in the third was the only run.
- Aaron Judge is out for the series. He’s dealing with a calf injury and the Yankees left him off the division series roster. He has started swinging but isn’t ready for games. That’s the biggest bat in the lineup gone for a team that just managed one hit.
- Schlittler is as good as it gets. He went 14-6 with a 1.95 ERA, and he was even better on the road at 8-2 with a 1.16 ERA. He threw 6 1/3 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts against Boston in the Wild Card round. The one soft spot is Tampa, where he had a 2.77 ERA in two starts this year.
- Peralta found it in Tampa. He struggled for four months with the Mets before the trade. Then he went 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA in five September starts, with one homer allowed in 28 innings, and won Pitcher of the Month. The Rays won 98 games this year. First pitch is 8 PM ET on TBS and truTV.
The Number
The best price on Tampa on our odds board right now is . When I wrote this, that was a little worse than a fair price once you take the house’s cut out of the market, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise.
The market has been leaning on Schlittler all day, and it’s a fair thing to lean on.
Here’s the honest version. The price isn’t on our side, so this is my pick, not a bet I’m staking. My case is that the market is pricing Schlittler like he’s pitching for the full Yankees lineup, and that lineup doesn’t exist this week. Rays to win, lean, confidence one.
In-Game Bets
- If the Yankees score first. Sit tight and don’t add. Teams that scored first are 12-3 in these playoffs, so the live price on Tampa will look better than it really is.
- If Peralta walks two in the first two innings. Leave it alone. That’s the version of him from New York, and you don’t throw more money at it.
- If it’s tied in the sixth and Schlittler is getting deep into his pitch count. Look at the Rays on the live number. The game turns into Tampa’s bullpen at home against New York’s, with the Rays already up a game, and that’s the spot I want them in.
- If Tampa leads after six. Do nothing. That’s the case working.
Bottom Line
Take the Rays to win at . Lean. Schlittler is the best arm in the series, but he’s pitching for a lineup without Judge that just got one hit, against a guy who hasn’t given anything up in a month. The price was a little short of fair when I wrote this, and the market has leaned toward New York, so it stays a lean.
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