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BrewersRobert Gasser · 3.87 ERA
RaysFreddy Peralta · 4.42 ERAMilwaukee is up 2-0, and both wins came by a single run. Now the series moves to Tropicana Field, and the best team in baseball is getting plus money. We got Game 1 wrong on the Rays. Tonight I’m taking the Brewers.
The Matchup
- Two one-run games. Milwaukee won Game 1 3-2 behind Jacob Misiorowski and Game 2 5-4, with Abner Uribe getting the win and Aaron Ashby the save.
- Milwaukee was the better team all year. The Brewers went 103-59 and outscored opponents 832 to 618. Tampa went 98-64, at 736 to 650.
- Now it’s Tampa’s park. The Rays are home for Games 3, 4 and 5, and down 0-2 they need this one.
- First pitch. 8:00 PM ET at Tropicana Field, on Fox.
The Pitchers
Robert Gasser starts for Milwaukee. He went 5-5 with a 3.87 ERA in 20 regular-season starts, and he’s been sharp in October: a 1.00 ERA over nine innings in two starts.
Freddy Peralta starts for Tampa. He went 10-11 with a 4.42 ERA in the regular season, then has a 1.08 ERA over 16.2 playoff innings. He doesn’t go deep: he’s topped 5.1 innings once in four October appearances.
The Number
Take the margin out and the market makes Tampa about a 53% favorite at home. Our run-scoring numbers have Milwaukee as the better team by enough to cancel out home field, which makes this about a coin flip. At plus money, the Brewers are the side.
The honest case against: Peralta has been excellent this postseason, a 2-0 team on the road can relax, and Tampa’s backs are against the wall. It’s a Game Pick, a lean, and like every pick we post, it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
Bottom Line
Take the Brewers on the moneyline at +102 at FanDuel. Lean. The better team at plus money, one win from a 3-0 lead. Brew Crew.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in two legs. If Milwaukee wins in Tampa, Peralta’s night probably ends early, before the strikeouts pile up. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not two bets.
- ✓Milwaukee Brewers ML
- ✓Freddy Peralta under 4.5 strikeouts
✓ WON · 2 of 2 legs hit
Peralta exits early and Milwaukee takes a 3-0 lead.
Lines as posted Monday at 2:01 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
