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BrewersDustin May · 4.70 ERA
RaysGriffin Jax · 3.53 ERAMilwaukee won Game 3 10-1, and now the Brewers are one win from the first World Series title in franchise history. No team has ever come back from 0-3 in a World Series. The Rays have to win four straight, starting tonight in their own park. We had the Brewers last night, and we’re staying with them.
The Matchup
- Game 3 wasn’t close. Robert Gasser threw six shutout innings on 75 pitches, and Milwaukee scored eight runs in the fifth. Jackson Chourio went 4-for-5, and William Contreras and Brice Turang had three hits each.
- The Brewers are rolling. They’re 10-1 this postseason with seven straight wins, including a sweep of the Dodgers in the NLCS. Their staff has a 2.02 ERA over 98 October innings.
- The better team all year. Milwaukee went 103-59 and outscored opponents by 214 runs. Tampa went 98-64, plus 86.
- First pitch. 8:00 PM ET at Tropicana Field, on Fox.
The Pitchers
Griffin Jax starts for Tampa. He moved from the bullpen to the rotation this year and posted a 3.53 ERA in 23 starts, with 116 strikeouts in 112.1 innings. He doesn’t go deep. He hasn’t finished six innings since July 22, and his ALCS start against Cleveland lasted four innings with three runs allowed.
Milwaukee named Dustin May as the Game 4 starter this afternoon, and it’s still a bullpen game behind him. May went 7-9 with a 4.70 ERA this season. Shane Drohan, Dustin May and Kyle Harrison are the names in play. The Brewers have done this before: Drohan opened NLCS Game 4 in Los Angeles for one inning, and the bullpen finished a 6-4 win. Brandon Woodruff, once a candidate, pitched the ninth on Monday.
The Number
Take the margin out and the market makes Milwaukee about a 53% favorite on the road. Our run-scoring numbers land in the same spot, maybe a point higher. So this isn’t a bargain like Monday’s plus money was. It’s a fair price on the better team, with the deeper pitching staff.
The honest case against: a bullpen game is a coin toss of its own, the Rays are at home with nothing left to save, and Bryan Baker, their All-Star closer, hasn’t thrown a pitch in this series. It’s a Game Pick, a lean, and it goes on the receipts page win or lose.
Bottom Line
Take the Brewers on the moneyline at −124 at FanDuel. Lean. Fair price, better team, one win from a parade in Milwaukee. Brew Crew.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in two legs. If Milwaukee finishes the sweep, Jax is probably out early, before the strikeouts add up. Both legs need the same game, so this is one position, not two bets.
- ✕Milwaukee Brewers ML
- ✕Griffin Jax under 3.5 strikeouts
✕ LOST · 0 of 2 legs hit
Jax exits early and Milwaukee wins the World Series.
Confirm lines before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
