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Sixteen games, a side on every one of them, starting Wednesday night in Seattle and finishing Monday at Arrowhead. The board below has every pick with the price and the book holding it. Three of these got a full write-up and are linked from the table. The prose underneath is the argument.
Every number here comes from the same place. Take the two teams’ published season win totals from our own previews, convert the gap between them, add two points for home field, and compare that to what the board is posting. Where the two sit more than a point and a half apart, I take the side the board is giving away. Melbourne gets no home field because neither team has one. No totals in this article and no player props.
One thing worth saying up front: eleven of these sixteen picks are underdogs. That is not a house style, it is what the arithmetic returned, and Week 1 boards do tend to price reputation ahead of roster. If that ratio bothers you, take the five favourites and leave the rest.
The Card
Sorted by kickoff. Eleven dogs, five favourites. Prices are live from our partner books; odds move, confirm at the book.
Featured Picks
Three games with the full argument behind them.
New England at Seattle
Wed 8:20 PM ETTake the Patriots and the three at Kicked off. Our previews have both of these teams at twelve and five, which makes this a coin flip on talent and hands the whole edge to the three points. Seattle is paying a banner-night premium against a roster that just added a three-time All-Pro receiver. Even after Lumen gets its two points, the number sits wider than our card says it should.
Read the full breakdown →
San Francisco at LA Rams
Thu 8:35 PM ET · MelbourneTake the 49ers and the three and a half at Kicked off. The Rams are the designated home team in a stadium eight thousand miles from Los Angeles, so neither side gets the two points our method normally hands the host. They also left a returning defensive lineman off the trip. Strip the phantom home field out and the board has this priced a field goal too far.
Read the full breakdown →
Dallas at New York Giants
Sun 8:20 PM ETTake the Giants and the three at −110Fanatics. This is the widest gap between our numbers and the board anywhere in Week 1. Dallas lost left guard Tyler Smith to injured reserve this week and the market has not moved for it. A home dog of three in a division game we project close to a pick is the best price on the page.
Read the full breakdown →Early Window
We have Atlanta three wins better than Pittsburgh across the season, which projects the Falcons to win this outright even on the road. Getting three and a half on top of that is the largest single mispricing in the early window. This is the one I would take first if I only played one.
Our previews have Indianapolis at nine and eight and Baltimore at eight and nine. Add home field and the Colts should be a small favourite rather than a field-goal dog. The board has this one backwards, and three and a half points is the size of the error.
Twelve and five against eleven and six, with the eleven-win team at home, is a game that should sit on the hook. Instead the number went a point and a half the other way. Thin, but it is the correct side of a thin number.
Four wins of separation on our card, and one of the few spots this week where the board is asking for less than our numbers say it should. Carolina’s two points of home field do not close a gap that size. One of five favourites I will lay all week.
We have Cincinnati at eleven and six and Tampa Bay at six and eleven. That is a five-game gap with the better team at home, and three and a half is nowhere near the right price for it. Our number is closer to seven.
Eight and a half is a lot to give away in a season opener and I do not enjoy it. But four wins of separation with the better team at home projects past this number, and the method does not get to skip games it finds uncomfortable.
Our card actually has New Orleans as the better team, eight and nine against seven and ten, which makes this closer to a pick than a touchdown. Detroit’s home field accounts for two of the seven; the other five are reputation. One of the three best numbers in the early window.
Two wins better on our card and at home, which projects nearer six than a point and a half. Neither of these is a good football team, and that is exactly why the market is undercharging the better one. Nobody wants to lay points in this game, which is the reason to.
Late Window
We have Arizona tied for the worst record in the league at four and thirteen, and the number still went a point and a half too far. Nine and a half is a September price on a team nobody wants to back. Bad teams get overpriced in Week 1 and corrected by October.
Ten and seven against seven and ten, at home, priced at a point and a half. That is the biggest gap on the board in favour of a favourite and the strongest of the five I am laying. If you take one thing off this page, take this.
Neither team is any good, but our previews have Miami two wins clear of Las Vegas, which makes Miami the correct side even after handing back home field. Three and a half is a gift on the wrong team. Our number has this within a point either way.
We have Washington a win better than Philadelphia on the season, which projects this as close to a pick once home field is applied. Five and a half is a division rival paying a reputation tax. Division games in Week 1 rarely run to the number anyway.
Monday Night
Denver is our AFC West winner at twelve and five and Kansas City sits a win behind at eleven and six, which makes this a pick once you hand Arrowhead its two points. Getting two and a half on top of that closes the week properly, and at even money you are paying nothing for it.
Bottom Line
Five favourites, eleven dogs, no totals and no props. If you take one thing off this page, make it Minnesota at home, and if you take a second, make it the Giants getting three on Sunday night. The three featured games have the full argument behind them at the links above.