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Pick locks at 7:10PM ET
Anaheim has won once at home all season. Buffalo just shut out the Sharks on Tuesday and stays in California for this one. Our numbers and the market see this game almost the same way, so this is one of the thinnest leans on the board. Sabres.
The Matchup
- Buffalo keeps it close. The Sabres are 5-4-3, with 33 goals for and 41 against. They won 2-0 in San Jose on Tuesday. Jack Quinn leads them with 6 goals, and Tage Thompson has 51 shots.
- Anaheim struggles at home. The Ducks are 5-6-1 and 1-3-1 at the Honda Center. They lost 6-5 in overtime to Vancouver on Tuesday. Beckett Sennecke has 7 goals, and Leo Carlsson has 11 assists.
- Rest. Neither team is on a back-to-back.
- Puck drop. 10:00 PM ET at the Honda Center, on ESPN+, Hulu and Disney+.
The Goalies
Colten Ellis is the expected starter for Buffalo. He’s 2-1-0 at .902 in four starts, better than Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen’s .866.
Ville Husso is expected for Anaheim instead of Lukas Dostal. Husso is 1-2-0 at .886 in four games, and Dostal is 4-4-1 at .872. Neither is confirmed yet.
The Number
Take the margin out and the market makes Buffalo about a 56% favorite. Our ratings, with Ellis and Husso in goal, have Buffalo near 57%. That’s barely an edge, so this lean comes down to Anaheim’s home record.
The honest case against: Husso has been shaky, but Ellis has only four starts, and a game like this can go either way. It’s a Game Pick, a lean, and like every pick we post, it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
Bottom Line
Take the Sabres on the moneyline at -140 at Fanatics. Lean. A coin flip with a small tilt toward the team that’s been better. Let’s go Buffalo.
Lines as of Thursday morning. Goalies are expected, not confirmed, so check them before puck drop.
Best Prop for This Game
We stick to shots on goal for hockey props, and we start from the under. It has a trend, a matchup and a real price behind it. It’s a Game Pick prop, a separate bet from our pick, so keep it small.
Leo CarlssonUnder 2.5 shots on goalA passer first: 11 assists and 15 shots on the season.
He hasn't had more than 2 in a game all year
−152
Prices checked Thursday morning. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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