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Battle of the QEW, Bobrovsky in blue and white, and the Leafs finally back home. I’m on Toronto. The Leafs are scoring 3.4 goals a game, and Buffalo’s goalie has had a rough start to the season.
The Matchup
- Toronto’s been living on the road. The Leafs are 3-3-1 and back at Scotiabank Arena for the first time since October 6. The western trip went shootout loss in Vegas, a 6-3 win in Colorado and a 5-4 loss in Utah on Tuesday.
- Buffalo can’t find the net. The Sabres are 3-3-1 with 19 goals in seven games. They got shut out 4-0 by Dallas, lost 4-1 to Utah, then beat Florida 5-3 before a shootout loss in Montreal on Tuesday.
- Puck drop. 7:10 PM ET in Toronto.
The Goalies
Sergei Bobrovsky is the likely starter for the Leafs, at 90.7% through four games in his first year in Toronto.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the likely starter for Buffalo. He’s at 83.9% through four games. That’s the number that sells me.
The Number
With the margin out, the market makes Toronto about a 52% team. I’ll lay the short price with the better goalie at home and the offense that’s been scoring.
The honest case against: Toronto has given up 23 goals and about 30 shots a night, so this isn’t a lockdown team. It’s a Game Pick, a lean, and like every pick we post, it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
Bottom Line
Take the Leafs on the moneyline at . Lean. Home ice, the better goalie tonight, and a Buffalo offense that’s scored more than three just twice in seven. Leafs.
Lines as posted Thursday at 5:00 PM ET. Goalies per the teams’ morning reports; confirm them before puck drop.
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