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Breakfast football from Wembley, and I’m taking the points with H-Town. Houston is 1-4, but three of those four losses came by five points or fewer. Jacksonville is 4-1 and Duuuval is feeling it, but on a neutral field these two grade out dead even, and we’re getting two and a half.
The Matchup
- Houston keeps losing close ones. The Texans lost 36-31 to Buffalo, 20-6 to Cincinnati, 19-17 at Indianapolis and 34-30 to Dallas, then beat Tennessee 26-3 last week. C.J. Stroud has 1,402 passing yards and hasn’t thrown an interception all season.
- Jacksonville is rolling. The Jaguars are 4-1. They beat Cleveland 34-10, New England 35-6, Cincinnati 22-17 and Philadelphia 19-17, and the only loss was 20-13 in Denver. They’ve given up 14 points a game.
- Both run defenses are stingy. Jacksonville allows the fewest rushing yards in the league, 63.8 a game, and Houston allows 78.4, third fewest. Through the air is where the yards are: the Jaguars give up 266.2 net passing yards a game, third most.
- Injuries. Houston is without running back David Montgomery and safety Jalen Pitre (both out), and Tank Dell is on injured reserve. Check the final report Friday afternoon.
- Kickoff. 9:30 AM ET at Wembley Stadium in London, on NFL Network. Neutral site.
The Number
Last season’s points scored and allowed were worth about 11.5 wins for Houston and 11.8 for Jacksonville. On a neutral field there’s no home edge, so that makes this Jacksonville by a few tenths of a point. The board has Jacksonville by two and a half. That’s 2.2 points of daylight on Houston.
The honest case against: Jacksonville has been the better team this year, and the Jaguars play in London more than anybody. But Houston’s quarterback is protecting the ball, the Texans lose by a field goal when they lose, and two and a half on a neutral field is real room. It’s a Featured pick, still a lean like every NFL side we post, and it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
In-Game Bets
- If Jacksonville scores first. Don’t chase it. Three of Houston’s five games have been decided by five points or fewer.
- If Houston leads at halftime. Leave it. The pick doesn’t need help.
- If the Jaguars run it well early. That’s the surprise; both of these run defenses have been stout. Hold.
Bottom Line
Take the Texans plus two and a half at . Lean. Even teams on a neutral field, and Houston gets the points. Texans.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs. If Houston covers, it’s because Stroud throws on a Jacksonville defense that gives up the third most passing yards in the league. Xavier Hutchinson has cleared his number every week lately, and Nico Collins has scored in two of his last three. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets.
The angleHouston moves it through the air against a defense that gives up yards there, and keeps it close.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Friday at 3:00 AM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Bets beyond the spread, from either side of the ball. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a real price behind it. These are Game Pick props, separate bets from our pick, so keep them small.
A low bar for a receiver who’s been over 45 yards in each of the last three.
- Trend3 of his last 3: 51, 46 and 65 receiving yards
- MatchupJacksonville allows 266.2 net passing yards a game, third most in the league
Houston’s top target at plus money, and he’s found the end zone three times in three games.
- TrendScored in 2 of his last 3
- MatchupJacksonville allows 266.2 net passing yards a game, third most
He’s been between 65 and 73 yards every week like clockwork.
- Trend3 of his last 3: 73, 73 and 72 rushing yards
- MatchupThe catch: Houston allows only 78.4 rushing yards a game, third fewest
Jacksonville’s leading receiver has scored four times in five games.
- TrendScored in 2 of his last 3
- MatchupHouston allows 234 net passing yards a game, 10th most
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