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I like Vanderbilt plus nine and a half at home. The numbers make this Ole Miss by about three, the board says nearly ten, and the Ole Miss defense has been one of the worst in the SEC. But the gap is big enough to make me nervous, and nobody knows yet who plays quarterback for Vanderbilt, so it’s a lean.
The Matchup
- Ole Miss can score, and so can everyone it plays. The Rebels are 3-1 and No. 9 in Pete Golding’s first season. Trinidad Chambliss is completing 71% of his passes with eight touchdowns through the air and four on the ground. But the defense allows almost 31 a game, Louisville put 38 on it, and Florida put 52 on it two weeks ago. Ole Miss has covered once in four games.
- Vanderbilt keeps games close. The Commodores are 3-2 and have covered three straight. They lost 21-15 at Auburn as a nine-and-a-half-point underdog and covered a 25-point spread at Georgia. Junior Sherrill has 474 receiving yards and a 60-yard touchdown at Georgia.
- The quarterback question is the whole game. Freshman Jared Curtis bruised his knee at Auburn and sat out the Georgia game. Clark Lea called him questionable on Wednesday and said he’s further along, and he practiced Tuesday with minimal limitations. If he can’t go, Blaze Berlowitz starts again. Berlowitz was 12 for 23 for 190 yards, a touchdown and an interception at Georgia.
- Ole Miss is a little banged up too. Running back Kewan Lacy hurt his shoulder against LSU. Golding expects him to play, but not a full load. Ole Miss is coming off a week off. Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET on ESPN.
The Number
The current ratings, updated after Week 5, have Ole Miss about six points better than Vanderbilt on a neutral field. Give Vanderbilt two and a half for playing at home and that’s Ole Miss by three and a half. The board has Ole Miss by nine and a half to ten and a half, depending on the shop. That’s six points on the Commodores, past our four-point warning line.
Here’s what the ratings might be missing. They have Ole Miss 35th in the country, and the poll has the Rebels ninth. The ratings are judging the defense, which has been bad, and the market is judging the wins over LSU and Louisville. The ratings also can’t know whether Curtis plays. About two in three bets are on Ole Miss, but the line has come down a point since it opened at ten and a half, so the bigger money is on Vanderbilt.
I’m still on Vanderbilt. A defense that gave up 52 to Florida is laying almost ten on the road, and Vanderbilt hasn’t lost by more than six to anyone but Georgia. Take the number at your shop that’s closest to ten. Vanderbilt plus nine and a half, lean, confidence one.
In-Game Bets
- If Curtis is ruled out before kickoff. Hold the pick, but don’t add. Berlowitz kept it respectable at Georgia, and this defense is not Georgia.
- If Ole Miss leads by 14 at halftime. Leave it. That’s the version of this game where the market was right.
- If Vanderbilt is within a score in the fourth quarter. You already have the side. Nothing to add.
Bottom Line
Take Vanderbilt plus nine and a half at -110 at Fanatics. Lean. The numbers make Ole Miss a three-and-a-half-point favorite in Nashville, and the board asks nearly ten. Ole Miss gave up 52 to Florida, and Vanderbilt has covered three straight. The gap is past our warning line and Vanderbilt’s quarterback is questionable, so it’s a lean at confidence one.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in two legs, both posted at the book on the parlay. If Vanderbilt covers, it’s most likely in a game that stays close and doesn’t turn into a track meet. Ole Miss has gone under the total in two of its last three games. Both legs need the same afternoon, so this is one position, not two bets. Size it small.
The angleVanderbilt keeps it close and the game stays under 56.5.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Wednesday at 5:00 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket.
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