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Ole Miss went 11-1 and reached the playoff semifinal, then watched its head coach leave for LSU and take the leading sacker and the leading tackler with him. LSU visits Oxford in week three. I am on the Under.
Key Storylines
- The head coach left in November and the roster followed him. Lane Kiffin accepted a seven-year deal at LSU on November 30 and did not coach the playoff. Princewill Umanmielen, who led the Rebels with nine sacks, went to Baton Rouge with him. So did TJ Dottery, the team’s leading tackler. Jaden Yates and his 55 tackles went to Houston.
- Five of the top six receivers are gone. Cayden Lee and Winston Watkins both left for other SEC programs. Whatever this offense looks like in September, it will not look like the one that put 39 on Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
- Pete Golding was promoted, and he kept the two players who mattered most. The defensive coordinator got the job and immediately talked Trinidad Chambliss, granted an extra year of eligibility, and running back Kewan Lacy out of following Kiffin. Lacy led all of FBS with 307 carries and all Power Four backs with 24 rushing touchdowns. Deuce Knight arrives from Auburn as the backup and is athletic enough to see designed runs. Golding then signed 29 portal commitments, rated the second-best class in the country by 247Sports. This is a genuine rebuild, not a collapse.
- The offensive line is the best argument against me. Ole Miss returns three starters up front in center Brycen Sanders, Delano Townsend and Patrick Kutas, adds Carius Curne from LSU at right tackle and slots Terez Davis in on the left. That group tied Texas A&M for the fewest sacks allowed in the SEC last season at 19. A veteran line in front of a returning quarterback is exactly the profile that beats a win total, and it is the reason this is a four rather than higher.
- The defense is where the losses actually bite. Bryan Brown runs it for a third season, and SP+ projects the unit 26th against an offense it rates 11th. That split is the season in one line: Ole Miss will score, and the two men who led this defense in sacks and tackles are now on the LSU sideline. Golding’s 29 portal additions are mostly aimed at that side of the ball, and whether they cohere by October is the bet.
- The kicking game is settled and it is genuinely good. Lucas Carneiro returns after a first-team All-SEC season in which he made a program-record 31 field goals, five of them from 50 or more, and punter Oscar Bird averaged 46.0. On a card with this many close games, that is a real asset and it cuts against my own position.
- September 19 is going to be loud. Kiffin brings LSU back to Vaught-Hemingway in week three, with two of Ole Miss’s best defenders on his sideline. It is the SEC opener for both teams and it comes before anyone knows what either roster is. The Grove will not need reminding.
Win Total Analysis
The number is 8.5, with the Under at -155 and the Over at +130.
Final preseason SP+, the ESPN power rating this series leans on, has Ole Miss 16th overall and projects 7.2 wins. Adjusted for the rating’s market bias that is 7.35 against a line of 8.5, a gap of more than a full win and the joint-widest on our college board. That drop, from a team that finished a game short of the national championship, is the model doing the same arithmetic I am.
Sort the schedule. Charlotte and Wofford are two you can bank, and Wofford is an FCS opponent. Louisville on the opening weekend in Nashville, a trip to Vanderbilt, Auburn at home and Mississippi State at home are four more the Rebels should win. That is six.
So the Over needs three wins from six: LSU, a trip to Florida, Missouri, a trip to Texas, Georgia, and a trip to Oklahoma. The Under needs Ole Miss to lose four of twelve. Four of those six are against SP+ top-eleven opponents, and one of the four is a coach who knows this roster from the inside.
Three from six is not absurd. Seven home games is a real asset, Chambliss is a real quarterback and that offensive line is one of the best in the conference. But the passing game has to be rebuilt from five departures, the head coach is in his first full season, and the four hardest opponents on the card are Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma and LSU.
Last season was 11-1 in the regular season, the best in program history. It is also the least useful comparison available, because the man who built it is now coaching against it.
Take the Under at -155.
SEC Picture
SP+ has seven SEC teams ahead of Ole Miss, including all four of the ones it has to beat: Georgia fourth, Texas sixth, LSU tenth and Oklahoma eleventh. Missouri, nineteenth, is on the card too.
BetMGM prices the Rebels at +175 to reach the playoff and -210 to miss. A year ago this team beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and lost the semifinal to Miami by four. The market has moved a long way in eight months, and the reason is written on the LSU staff directory.
One thing worth keeping in perspective: 29 portal additions rated second nationally is not nothing. If Golding’s class hits early, this is the article that ages worst on the board. I think it needs a season to settle, not a September.
Best Futures Bets
- Under 8.5 wins (-155): The play. Nine wins asks a first-year head coach with a rebuilt receiving room to take three from Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, LSU, Missouri and a road trip to Florida, and the adjusted projection sits more than a win below the number.
- Over 8.5 wins (+130): The honest counterargument, and it is better than most. Seven home games, the quarterback and the FBS carries leader both retained, an offensive line that allowed nineteen sacks all year, and the second-rated portal class in the country. If the new receivers are ready by October this looks obvious in hindsight.
- To miss the playoff (-210): Pass. It is directionally the same opinion as my Under, and I am not laying better than two to one to express something I can get at -155.
- SEC winner: Watch list, no price quoted. I have not confirmed one at a book I can point you to.
Schedule Landmines
Weeks 1-4: The opener against Louisville is at Nissan Stadium in Nashville on the opening weekend, a neutral site rather than a home game. Charlotte follows, then LSU on September 19, then a trip to Florida. A new staff gets two games before Kiffin walks back in.
Weeks 5-8: The bye on October 3, then a trip to Vanderbilt, Missouri at home on October 17 and a trip to Austin on October 24. Vanderbilt has spent recent seasons beating teams it should not, and Texas is the second-rated team in the conference.
Weeks 9-11: The hard part. Auburn on Halloween, then Georgia comes to Oxford on November 7, then Norman on November 14. Ole Miss beat Georgia in January and gets the rematch at Vaught-Hemingway, which is the single most winnable of the marquee games.
Weeks 12-13: Wofford, then the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State in Oxford on Friday November 27, the day after Thanksgiving rather than the Saturday. Two games the Rebels should win, and if the Under is still live arriving here, it very likely stays live. The Golden Egg has ended better seasons than this one is projected to be.
Bottom Line
The coach who built the best season in program history is now at LSU with the leading sacker and the leading tackler, and five of the top six receivers left. The line is excellent and the kicker is All-SEC, which is why this is a four rather than more. The replacement staff still has to find three wins from Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, LSU, Missouri and a trip to Florida, and the adjusted projection says 7.35 against a line of 8.5. Take the Under at -155.
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