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I’m back on the White Sox for Game 4, and it’s still a lean. Our baseball numbers are up and running now, and they make Chicago a small favorite at home. The board has the Sox as a slight underdog. That gap is big enough that I have to respect what the market sees in Cleveland’s starter.
The Matchup
- Chicago leads the series 2-1. The White Sox won 3-0 and 4-3 in Cleveland, then lost 9-3 at home on Wednesday. One more win and they’re in the Championship Series.
- Cleveland finally hit. Jo Adell cleared the bases with a triple in the third, and José Ramírez added a double, a two-run triple and a stolen base. The Guardians had 11 hits and drew 10 walks. Chicago went 2 for 11 with runners in scoring position.
- Cleveland’s pen is in good shape for an elimination game. The Guardians used seven pitchers on Wednesday, but closer Cade Smith threw only 19 pitches, and they’re calling it all hands on deck. Chicago’s Grant Taylor is rested and expected to pitch after the opener.
- First pitch is 8:00 PM ET on TBS at Rate Field. Cleveland faces elimination for the second straight day.
- Cleveland’s lineup has a soft spot. Ángel Martínez is 0 for 12 with seven strikeouts this postseason, and Ramírez is playing through a hand problem, even if he looked fine on Wednesday.
The Pitching
Cleveland starts Parker Messick on regular rest. He had a 2.56 ERA over 186 innings this year and he’s been very good against this lineup: four starts, 29 strikeouts in 25 and two-thirds innings. But Game 1 was a different story. The Sox hit him hard and he was out after four and a third innings. He’s been good in this park too, with a 2.45 ERA, 18 strikeouts and two walks in 14 and two-thirds innings at Rate Field this year. That’s why the market makes Cleveland a slight favorite on the road.
Chicago opens with rookie Hagen Smith, who has a 1.29 ERA in 28 innings, mostly in short outings. He threw two and two-thirds no-hit innings in Game 1, but he’s walked 16 batters this year and threw 21 pitches on Wednesday. Chicago is 2-0 when he starts. Expect two innings at most, then Grant Taylor and the rest of a rested bullpen, and a quick hook from both managers if anyone gets in trouble.
How I See It
Our numbers start from each team’s runs scored and allowed over the whole season, then adjust for the day’s starter and home field. Chicago scored almost 100 more runs than Cleveland this year, and that’s why the numbers like the Sox at about 53%. The board has Chicago just under 50%. That’s a gap of almost five points, past our four-point warning line.
The warning makes sense here. The numbers don’t trust a 28-inning sample from Smith, and they can’t see that Messick has dominated this lineup all year. Those are real reasons for the market’s price. The money agrees with them: Cleveland opened as an underdog at +114 and it’s a small favorite now. I still like the better offense at home with the series lead, but I won’t put a stake on a gap this big. White Sox on the moneyline, lean, confidence one.
Bottom Line
Take the White Sox on the moneyline at +100 at Fanatics. Lean. Our numbers make Chicago a small home favorite, and the board has the Sox as a slight underdog. Chicago has the better offense and the series lead, but Messick has owned this lineup and the gap is past our warning line, so it’s a lean.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs, all posted at the book on the parlay. If the White Sox close it out, it’s most likely because the top of the order gets to Messick early. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets, and it’s a lean like the side.
The angleChicago’s first two hitters get on base against Messick and the Sox close out the series.
Build it at Fanatics →Fanatics prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Thursday at 3:30 PM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Three bets beyond the moneyline, from either side. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a fair price behind it. These are separate bets from our pick, so size them small.
He has a hit in all three games of this series and has cleared this in two of them.
- Trend2 of 3: 2, 2 and 1
- MatchupA right-handed hitter near the top of the order against the left-handed Messick, and Cleveland walked 10 on Wednesday
He leads off, so he’ll get the most trips to the plate, and he’s cleared this in two of the last three.
- Trend2 of 3: 0, 3 and 2
- MatchupRight-handed leadoff hitter against a lefty starter
He was pulled after 13 outs in Game 1, and in an elimination game Cleveland won’t wait if he gets hit.
- Trend2 of 3 under: 15, 9 and 13
- MatchupThe Sox hit him hard in Game 1, and Cleveland’s full bullpen is available
Prices checked Thursday at 3:30 PM ET. Prop prices move fast, so confirm them before you bet. Player props not available in all states.
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