SlateLines earns a commission from sportsbook links on this page. 21+ and present in a legal state. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Rise Up. I’m taking the Falcons and the hook at the Benz. Since Michael Penix took over, Atlanta has scored 35, 45 and 23, and Chicago still doesn’t know who its quarterback is. Our number has this a coin flip, so give me the home dog with a point and a half.
The Matchup
- Chicago’s quarterback carousel. Caleb Williams started the first two games, then Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent split the next three. Williams is questionable this week. The Bears are 3-2, but they lost 31-7 in Green Bay last week.
- Atlanta found something with Penix. The Falcons are 2-3, but they were 0-2 with Cooper Rush. In three Penix starts: 35-14 at Green Bay, 45-24 at New Orleans and a 30-23 loss to Baltimore.
- Drake London is cooking. He’s had 194, 96 and 118 receiving yards in Penix’s three starts. Chicago’s top corner, Kyler Gordon, is out, and Tyrique Stevenson is questionable.
- Kickoff. 1:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, on Fox. Indoors.
The Number
Last season’s points scored and allowed were worth about 9.1 wins for Chicago and 7.2 for Atlanta. One point of spread for every win, plus a point and a half for the home team, makes this Chicago by about half a point. The board has Chicago by a point and a half. That’s 1.1 points of daylight on Atlanta.
The honest case against: Chicago’s defense has held three of five opponents to 12 points or fewer. But a point and a half with the home team and the better quarterback situation is a fine spot. It’s a Featured pick, still a lean like every NFL side we post, and it lands on the receipts page win or lose.
In-Game Bets
- If Williams is ruled out. That only helps. Watch the final report.
- If London gets loose early. Leave it; the case is already built on him.
- If Chicago leads by a touchdown at halftime. Hold. A lean doesn’t need a second bet.
Bottom Line
Take the Falcons plus one and a half at . Lean. Home dog, hot quarterback and a coin-flip number. Falcons.
Same-Game Parlay
One read in three legs. If Atlanta covers, Penix and London are the reason. London has been over 90 yards in each of Penix’s starts, and Penix has cleared his passing number in two of three. Every leg needs the same game, so this is one position, not three bets.
The anglePenix keeps feeding London against a secondary missing its best corner, and Atlanta covers.
Build it at FanDuel →FanDuel prices same-game parlays in its own builder, so there is no price here. Build the legs there and check the number before you place it.
Price: check your sportsbook for SGP pricing. Lines as posted Friday at 3:00 AM ET; confirm them before you build the ticket. This parlay is a Game Pick. Player props not available in all states.
Best Props for This Game
Bets beyond the spread, from either side of the ball. Every one has a trend, a matchup and a real price behind it. These are Game Pick props, separate bets from our pick, so keep them small.
He’s been Penix’s first read every week, and Chicago is short at corner.
- Trend3 of his last 3: 194, 96 and 118 receiving yards
- MatchupKyler Gordon is out and Tyrique Stevenson is questionable
Indoors, with his best receiver rolling, the number is reachable.
- Trend2 of his last 3: 256, 223 and 240 passing yards
- MatchupChicago is without Gordon and safety Anthony Johnson Jr. (out)
He’s been a steady target no matter who’s at quarterback.
- Trend2 of his last 3: 61, 63 and 47 receiving yards
- MatchupAtlanta allows 248.4 net passing yards a game, sixth most
Atlanta’s short-yardage back has four touchdowns in his last three games.
- TrendScored in 2 of his last 3
- MatchupChicago allows 96 rushing yards a game; he gets the goal-line work
21+ · Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER