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I’m taking Arkansas and the two touchdowns at Kyle Field. Texas A&M should win, but a team that’s scored six points against LSU and lost at home to Kentucky hasn’t earned a fourteen-point spread against anybody. The numbers say eleven and a half. That’s a light play.
The Matchup
- Texas A&M has fallen hard. The Aggies started 2-0 and were ranked ninth, then lost 31-21 at home to Kentucky and 35-6 at LSU. They’re unranked now.
- Marcel Reed is struggling. At LSU he went 10-for-26 for 106 yards with an interception, took four sacks and ran for minus 13 yards. Mike Elko said he isn’t benching him, so it’s Reed again Saturday.
- Arkansas is 2-2 against a tougher schedule. The Razorbacks beat North Alabama and Tulsa, lost 43-10 at Utah and 45-17 to Georgia. They’re under a first-year head coach, Ryan Silverfield, and Chris Marshall leads the SEC with 473 receiving yards.
- Arkansas’s defense is thin in the middle. Starting middle linebacker Bradley Shaw, who calls the defense, is questionable along with linebacker Wyatt Simmons. Both missed the Tulsa game. Kickoff is 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2.
The Number
The current ratings, updated after Week 4, have Texas A&M a little over nine points better than Arkansas on a neutral field. Give the Aggies two and a half for playing at home and that’s Texas A&M by 11.7. The board has them by fourteen at most shops and thirteen and a half at a couple. At fourteen, that’s 2.3 points on Arkansas. It’s a real disagreement, just barely, and nowhere near our four-point warning line.
The line has moved a little our way. It opened at fourteen and a half at some shops and it’s down to fourteen, and thirteen and a half in a couple of places. That’s the market cooling on an A&M team that’s lost two straight.
Why only a light play? The gap is small, and Arkansas has been blown out twice by good teams. If you can only find thirteen and a half, the gap drops under two and this becomes a lean. Take fourteen or better. Arkansas plus fourteen, light play, confidence two.
In-Game Bets
- If Reed completes his first five passes. Leave it. The case rests on A&M’s passing game still being broken, and that says it isn’t.
- If Arkansas is within a touchdown at halftime. Do nothing. You have two touchdowns in your pocket.
- If A&M leads by 21 at halftime. Leave it. That’s the version where Arkansas’s missing linebackers matter, and there’s no live number worth chasing.
Bottom Line
Take Arkansas plus fourteen at . Light play. The numbers make Texas A&M an eleven-and-a-half-point favorite at home, the board asks fourteen, and the line has already cooled half a point. A&M’s offense scored six points last week. The gap is small and Arkansas has been blown out twice, so it’s a light play at confidence two, and only at fourteen or better.
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